Eurozone inflation ticks up in July, bolstering rate hike case

[FRANKFURT] Eurozone inflation ticked up in July, adding to an already strong case for another European Central Bank interest rate hike, especially as high oil prices foreshadow a further broadening of price pressures.

Inflation in the 21 nations sharing the euro currency picked up to 2.9 per cent in July from 2.8 per cent a month earlier, in line expectations for 2.9 per cent, with an Iran war-induced oil price surge driving the increase, Eurostat data showed on Friday (Jul 31).

A more closely watched figure on underlying inflation, which filters out volatile food and energy prices, meanwhile accelerated to 2.5 per cent from 2.4 per cent as services inflation rose to 3.3 per cent.

Though crucial, the July figures are unlikely to be a dealbreaker for the ECB since policymakers will get another inflation print in August before their next rate meeting and oil prices have proven to be extremely volatile.

Still, the central bank has strongly signalled that a rate hike is coming, arguing that the economy is performing along its ‘baseline’ scenario, which itself was predicated on a rate hike on September 10.

Economic growth figures have also eased concerns that a rate hike, aimed at stopping high energy prices from seeping into broader price and wage setting, would stymie economic growth.

The eurozone economy expanded by 0.4 per cent in the second quarter, twice as fast as expected, defying gloomy forecasts that the war and high energy costs could push it close to a recession.

Financial markets are betting on more than two rate hikes with moves fully priced in by October and April.

Economists are more cautious, however, and they see just one more move on the premise that high energy prices have yet to generate any second round price impacts which could then perpetuate high inflation.

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In fact the labour market is relatively soft, suggesting that wage pressures will continue to ease.

Imports from China also remain relatively cheap while food inflation has been slowing for some time, offsetting some of the energy price increase.

Indeed, food inflation slowed in July while the price growth of non-energy industrial goods, which in great part reflects imports from China, picked up to a still low 0.9 per cent. REUTERS