Fed's Barkin says soft landing for economy 'increasingly conceivable'

THE US central bank is “making real progress” towards taming inflation without inflicting major damage on the job market, with a hoped-for soft landing “increasingly conceivable,” Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Wednesday (Jan 3).

While the best-case outcome of inflation falling without a major rise in the unemployment rate is “in no way inevitable,” and could still be thrown off course, “you can see the case” developing in data that includes continued low joblessness and inflation that on a six-month basis is now below the Fed’s 2 per cent target, Barkin said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Raleigh Chamber of Commerce in North Carolina.

Barkin did not provide details about his own policy expectations for the year, or when it might be appropriate for the Fed to begin reducing a policy rate that has been held steady since July in the 5.25 per cent to 5.50 per cent range.

Fed officials at the Dec 12-13 policy meeting indicated they would likely not need to raise rates again, and Barkin noted that “most of us forecasted rate normalisation to begin sometime this year.”

But he said risks to a soft landing remain, including that delayed impacts from current high interest rates hit harder than expected, and also that outside shocks or stickier-than-expected inflation makes a full return to the Fed’s target more difficult than anticipated.

“That’s why the potential for additional rate hikes remains on the table,” Barkin said, with the timing and pace of any rate cuts determined by whether inflation continues to fall and the economy continues to “fly smoothly ... There’s no autopilot. And the data that come in this year will matter.” REUTERS