Global coffee production to rebound in 2022/23

WORLD coffee production is forecast to rebound in 2022/23 due primarily to a larger crop in Brazil leading to an increase in global stocks, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in a biannual report.

Global production was seen rising by 6.6 million bags to 172.8 million in 2022/23 with consumption seen just 800,000 bags higher than the prior season at 167.9 million.

The report noted that “against this improving supply situation” coffee prices issued by the International Coffee Organization had fallen by 25 per cent since February.

Arabica coffee production in Brazil was forecast to rise by 3.4 million bags to 39.8 million, although this was seen well below recent on-year crops in the country’s biennial crop cycle, which peaked at nearly 50 million bags.

“Arabica trees in many growing regions continued to recover from severe frosts in June and July 2021 as well as high temperatures and below-average rainfall that prevailed until September 2021,” the report said.

Brazil’s robusta harvest is forecast to continue expanding to reach a record 22.8 million, up 1.1 million bags.

Vietnam, the world’s second largest coffee producer, was seen harvesting a crop of 30.2 million bags, down 1.4 million from the prior season on reduced yields.

The USDA noted fertiliser prices in Vietnam had risen by as much as 70 per cent in the last year.

“Farmers responded by reducing fertiliser use, which is expected to lower yields and output from the previous year,” the report said.

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Global stocks of coffee at the end of the 2022/23 season were forecast to rise by 1.5 million bags to 34.1 million. REUTERS