ADB trims developing Asia’s growth forecast, flags US policy risks
DEVELOPING Asia is likely to grow more slowly than previously thought this year and next, and the outlook could worsen if president-elect Donald Trump makes swift changes to US trade policy, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said on Wednesday (Dec 11).
Developing Asia, which includes 46 Asia-Pacific countries stretching from Georgia to Samoa – and excludes Japan, Australia and New Zealand – is projected to grow 4.9 per cent this year and 4.8 per cent next year, slightly lower than ADB’s forecasts of 5 per cent and 4.9 per cent in September. The downgraded growth estimates reflect lacklustre economic performance in some economies during the third quarter and a weaker outlook for consumption, the bank said.
Growth forecasts for China remain unchanged at 4.8 per cent for 2024 and 4.5 per cent for 2025, but ADB lowered its projections for India to 6.5 per cent for 2024 from 7 per cent previously, and to 7 per cent for next year from 7.2 per cent.
“Changes to US trade, fiscal, and immigration policies could dent growth and boost inflation in developing Asia,” ADB said in its Asian Development Outlook report, though it noted most effects were likely to manifest beyond the 2024-2025 forecast horizon.
Trump, who takes office on Jan 20, has threatened to impose tariffs in excess of 60 per cent on US imports of Chinese goods, crackdown on illegal migrants, and extend tax cuts.
“Downside risks persist and include faster and larger US policy shifts than currently envisioned, a worsening of geopolitical tensions, and an even weaker PRC (People’s Republic of China) property market,” ADB said.
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ADB lowered its inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 2.7 per cent and 2.6 per cent, respectively, from 2.8 per cent and 2.9 per cent previously, due to softening global commodity prices.
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