Airline ticket prices may stay high as global carriers bank fuel relief from Iran deal
This gives airlines leeway to use lower fuel bills to rebuild margins rather than reverse recent price increases
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[CHICAGO/LONDON] Airlines stand to save billions of dollars on jet fuel after an interim US-Iran peace deal sent oil prices lower, but passengers are unlikely to see immediate relief as tight capacity may allow carriers to keep fares well above pre-war levels.
The US market offers the clearest example. Fare increases still lag this year’s run-up in fuel costs, while domestic seat growth remains limited. That gives airlines leeway to use lower fuel bills to rebuild margins rather than reverse recent price increases.
US jet fuel spot prices stood at US$2.85 a gallon on Jun 17, down sharply from an April high of US$4.88.
A decline of that size would cut the US airline industry’s annual fuel bill by more than US$40 billion if sustained, according to a Reuters calculation based on industry fuel consumption.
Fares still lag fuel
As jet fuel prices surged, US airlines raised ticket prices and bag fees, and cut schedules, but those steps have offset only part of the rise in fuel costs.
Industry data showed that jet fuel prices rose more than three times as fast as airfares from January until May.
Deutsche Bank estimated that US carriers would recover only about 60 cents of every additional dollar spent on fuel – US$14.4 billion in higher revenue against US$24.1 billion in higher fuel costs.
Alaska Air said it was recovering about one-third of the increase, while Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines put second-quarter recapture at about 40 to 50 per cent. JetBlue Airways and Frontier Group expect to recover less than half.
United CEO Scott Kirby told Reuters his airline was getting closer to recouping the fuel-cost spike through pricing: “We’re on a path to recovering 100 per cent by the end of the year.”
Investment banking firm Raymond James data showed that average domestic fares booked one week before travel were up 34.1 per cent from the year before, as at Jun 8.
The key question is whether airlines can keep recent fare increases as fuel prices ease.
“What remains crucial is the ability to hold price,” Melius Research analyst Conor Cunningham said, adding that lower petrol prices could ease consumer pressure over high airfares.
Unequal pass-through
Outside the US, fare relief is likely to be uneven.
Lower crude prices will take time to feed through to jet fuel, and unless jet fuel falls back towards start-of-year levels, airlines are likely to keep fares firm or push them higher where demand allows, said Dudley Shanley, head of aviation and travel research at Dublin-based Goodbody.
Europe may encounter a split. Long-haul fares are more likely to ease because airlines passed on higher fuel costs more successfully on those routes, RBC analyst Ruairi Cullinane said. Short-haul fares may prove firmer if the peace agreement supports bookings and demand.
In Asia, HSBC analysts said that China’s big three airlines faced weak pricing power and falling aircraft utilisation, while Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific was better placed as higher fares, cargo revenue and premium demand could offset fuel costs.
The Middle East is the clearest exception, after the war disrupted traffic flows.
Some airlines may use promotions to win back traffic, said aviation analyst John Strickland, but fuel remains too expensive for widespread discounting. United Arab Emirates carriers could be more aggressive and receive stronger government backing, he added.
Earnings before discounts
How much airlines benefit from lower fuel prices will depend on how long prices stay down.
Fuel bills reflect purchases over time, not spot prices, and even after the latest declines, jet fuel still costs 54 per cent more than the year before, said the National Air Transport Association.
Southwest Airlines chief operating officer Andrew Watterson summed up the pressure. When asked when Southwest could return to pre-pandemic margins, he quipped: “When’s fuel going to go down?”
That leaves little incentive to cut fares as airlines try to rebuild earnings.
Investment bank Jefferies estimated that each 5 per cent drop in its roughly US$3 a gallon 2027 fuel-cost forecast would lift projected earnings per share by 10 to 15 per cent for Delta, Southwest and United, and by as much as 50 per cent for American Airlines.
No broad fare war
In past US fuel cycles, falling oil prices often triggered a capacity race that pushed fares lower. Those conditions are not broadly in place now. Aircraft delivery delays, tight airport capacity and weaker low-cost carriers are limiting the risk of a broad domestic fare war.
US domestic airline seats are scheduled to grow just 0.4 per cent year on year in the third quarter, down from 4.6 per cent expected before the latest Middle East tensions, industry data showed.
JPMorgan analysts said that limited aircraft deliveries and budget-carrier pullbacks reduce the risk of “meaningful capacity creep” in the US, giving airlines a better-than-usual ability to hold current pricing.
For passengers, fare relief may depend less on fuel than on whether demand holds up. “This is very much subject to the strength of the consumer,” Goodbody’s Shanley said. REUTERS
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