Brent oil rises 7% on report US considering military options to break Iran deadlock

BRENT oil prices rose as much as 7 per cent on Thursday (Apr 30) on a report that the US is considering potential military action against Iran to break the deadlock in negotiations to end the war, increasing concerns of more supply disruptions to already curtailed Middle East exports.

Brent crude futures for June rose US$6.81, or 5.8 per cent, to US$124.84 a barrel as at 13.27 pm in Singapore, after gaining 6.1 per cent in the previous session. The June contract, up for a ninth day, expires on Thursday and the more active July contract was at US$113.78, up US$3.34, or 3 per cent, after gaining 5.8 per cent in the previous session.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for June were up US$2.76, or 2.6 per cent, at US$109.64 a barrel, after climbing 7 per cent in the previous session, climbing in eight of nine sessions.

Both benchmarks are on track for their fourth month of gains. Since the start of the year, Brent prices have more than doubled, rising to their highest since March 2022 on Thursday, and WTI is up more than 90 per cent.

US President Donald Trump is slated to receive a briefing on Thursday on plans for a series of military strikes on Iran in hopes it will return to negotiations on its nuclear programme, according to an Axios report late on Wednesday.

The US and Israel began air strikes on Iran on Feb 28 and it retaliated by closing off almost all shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for energy supplies from Middle Eastern producers. Amid a ceasefire that has paused combat, the US has imposed a blockade on Iranian ports.

Talks to resolve the conflict, which has killed thousands and caused what analysts say is the world’s biggest energy disruption ever, have deadlocked, with the US insisting on discussing Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons programme and Iran demanding some control over the strait and reparations for damage from the war.

“Prospects for any near-term resolution to the Iran conflict or a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain dim,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said.

In a sign that the conflict and resulting energy supply disruptions are set to continue for longer, Trump spoke on Wednesday with oil companies about how to mitigate the impact of a possible months-long US blockade, a White House official said.

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Oil rises on reports US will extend Iran blockade, prolonging Middle East supply disruptions

“In the near term, market participants remain focused on the dynamics of the US-Iran conflict and the risk of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This focus currently outweighs the long-term implications of the potential waning influence of Opec+ following the UAE’s exit from the cartel,” said Oanda senior market analyst Kelvin Wong.

The Opec+ grouping of members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies is likely to agree on a small increase of around 188,000 barrels per day in oil output quotas on Sunday, sources told Reuters on Wednesday.

The meeting comes just after the United Arab Emirates’ withdrawal from Opec, effective May 1, which is expected to deal a blow to the oil producer group’s ability to control prices. Although the Gulf nation’s exit would allow it to raise production after exports restart, analysts say that is unlikely to affect market fundamentals this year, especially with the Hormuz closure and other production disruptions from the war.

Analysts are now considering oil demand destruction to be the most likely way to solve the current tight supply situation.

ING analysts see about 1.6 million bpd of demand lost as consumers and end-users simply stop using oil products in some form because of high prices.

Though significant, “it’s clearly not enough to fill the supply gap we are currently facing”, the analysts said. REUTERS