China tour groups start cancelling Japan trips as spat simmers

[BEIJING] China’s travel advisory against visiting Japan has nudged tour operators to cancel prebooked flights and hotels for group travellers in December and suspend marketing of such trips to locals, as a diplomatic spat shows no signs of abating.

In the days after the safety warning – a response to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan – at least two state-owned Chinese travel agencies scrapped group bookings made months in advance, according to people familiar with the matter.

The pro-active move was aimed at protecting the agencies against potential losses amid policy uncertainty and shifting sentiment, said the people, who asked not to be identified commenting on the geopolitically sensitive topic. The cancellations were made easier by Chinese airlines’ offer to waive cancellation fees, and allow flexible rebooking options, they said.

Some Japanese businesses too are beginning to feel the ripples. The Imperial Hotel said it has started receiving notifications of postponements and cancellations for corporate events and stays. A spokesperson for Kintetsu Group Holdings reported that cancellations for November and December bookings at hotels operated by its subsidiary Kintetsu & Miyako Hotels are higher than usual.

China’s advisory came after Takaichi suggested that military force used in a Taiwan conflict could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan. While Beijing has so far refrained from any broader retaliatory action, the situation remains fluid, and Tokyo has stepped up diplomatic efforts to ease tensions.

To be sure, cancellations among individual travellers were limited as of Tuesday, according to people familiar with the matter. China’s largest online travel platforms have seen bookings to Japan remain largely intact, they said. The Japan Association of Travel Agents also reported no major disruptions from its members yet.

On Xiaohongshu, a popular Chinese social media platform, users appeared split: some of them posted screenshots of cancelled itineraries, while others in a 300-member group chat dedicated to Japan travel insisted that they would go ahead with their plans. “Politics is politics. And life is life,” one user wrote.

In 2024, only 11.9 per cent of Chinese tourists to Japan travelled in tour groups, down from 42.9 per cent in 2015, according to Japan tourism statistics. The rise of independent travel – often booked through mobile apps and social media – has made it harder for authorities to influence outbound travel behaviour at scale.

In places like Niseko, a popular ski destination, the mood remains calm. The local tourism association expects limited disruption, with Fumihiko Nakano, the secretary general of Niseko Resort Tourist Association, noting that Chinese visitors have reported positive experiences and that residents and business operators don’t tend to hold strong nationalist sentiment.

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“At the moment there is no changes to booking trend from China to Japan, or Japan to China but we will continue to closely monitor the situation,” Shinichi Inoue, the chief executive officer of ANA Holdings Inc’s All Nippon Airways, said in an interview on Saturday.

China accounts for roughly one in four visitors to Japan this year, and up to 15 per cent of Japanese carriers’ international seat capacity. Whether Beijing’s advisory evolves into a broader clampdown – or fades in the face of travellers’ resolve – will be a key test of how much sway the state still holds over a new generation of tourists. BLOOMBERG