China’s factory-gate deflation deepens as trade war bites
[BEIJING] China’s factory-gate prices posted the steepest drop in six months in April while consumer prices fell for a third month, underlining the need for more stimulus as policymakers grapple with the economic toll from a trade war with the United States.
A prolonged housing market downturn, high household debt and job insecurity have hampered investment and consumer spending, keeping deflationary pressures alive. Now, the economy is also facing increasing external risks from trade barriers.
However, there are hopes for a de-escalation of tensions as US-China trade talks begin in Switzerland on Saturday.
The producer price index (PPI) dropped 2.7 per cent in April year-on-year, worse than a 2.5 per cent decline in March but was less than economists’ forecast for a 2.8 per cent fall, National Bureau of Statistics data showed on Saturday.
“China still faces persistent deflationary pressure,” said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. “The pressure may rise in coming months as exports will likely weaken.”
“Even if China and the US can make progress and cut tariffs in trade negotiations, tariffs are unlikely to go back to the level before April,” Zhang added. “More proactive fiscal policy is necessary to boost domestic demand and address the deflation problem.”
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Consumer prices eased 0.1 per cent last month from a year earlier, matching a 0.1 per cent drop in March and the forecast in a Reuters poll.
CPI was up 0.1 per cent month-on-month versus a 0.4 per cent fall in March and compared with economists’ forecasts for no change in prices.
Core inflation, excluding volatile food and fuel prices, stood at 0.5 per cent in April from a year earlier, in line with the increase recorded in March.
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The Chinese government is implementing a wide range of measures to stimulate consumption across different sectors and last week announced a raft of stimulus measures, including interest rate cuts and a major injection of liquidity.
As the trade war between the world’s two largest economies weighs on exports, China’s retail giants, including JD.com and Alibaba-owned Freshippo, have initiated measures to help exporters pivot to the domestic market. That could further depress prices as business and consumer confidence remain subdued due to the uncertain outlook.
Global investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, have lowered their GDP forecasts for China this year to below the official target of around 5 per cent, attributing the downgrade to the damaging trade war. REUTERS
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