Global coal demand hits record high this year but is set to decline by 2030: IEA

[LONDON] Global coal demand reached a record high in 2025 but is expected to decline by 2030 as renewables, nuclear power and abundant natural gas squeeze its dominance in power generation, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday (Dec 17).

Weaning the world off coal is considered vital to achieving global climate targets, but the fossil fuel remains the single biggest fuel to make electricity.

Coal demand is forecast to rise 0.5 per cent in 2025 to a record 8.85 billion tonnes, the IEA’s Coal 2025 report showed.

“Looking ahead, we observe that the global coal demand plateaus and will start a very slow and gradual decline through the end of the decade,” Keisuke Sadamori, IEA director of energy markets and security, said in a press briefing.

The forecast was little changed from last year’s outlook, despite observing different trends in 2025.

India’s coal use declined for only the third time in five decades due to intense monsoons, which increased hydropower and depressed electricity demand.

In the US, consumption rose on higher gas prices, and after President Donald Trump this year signed an executive order, to save coal plants that were likely to be retired and to boost coal production.

Demand in China, which is the world’s largest coal consumer, was largely flat this year, and is expected to fall slightly by 2030 as renewable capacity increases.

However, faster electricity demand growth, or slower renewable integration in China, could push global demand above forecasts, the report said.

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“China... which consumes 30 per cent more coal than the rest of the world put together, is the main driver of global coal trends,” Sadamori added. REUTERS