THE presidents of the United States and China will meet in California next Wednesday (Nov 15) in what would be their first face-to-face meeting in a year.

Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, who have not seen each other in person since the Group of 20 summit in Bali in November 2022, will meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit in San Francisco.

While the Bali meeting was seen as a “thaw” in heated US-China tensions, relations took a sharp nosedive in the wake of a Chinese spy balloon that was shot down by the US in February this year.

In recent months, however, there has been greater high-level contact between both sides, a signal that things are starting to improve. Since mid-year, the US has sent at least four senior officials to Beijing. Last month, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Washington, where he met Biden and other top officials.

Ahead of the big day, here’s a look at what’s at stake for what is widely described as the most important bilateral relationship in the world.

What happened in Bali

The meeting in Bali, at a luxury hotel on the Indonesian island, was the first time that Biden had met Xi in person since the US leader took office in January 2021. The talks set the tone for the nature of US-China relations.

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According to the White House, Biden said the US would “continue to compete vigorously” with China, “including by investing in sources of strength at home and aligning efforts with allies and partners around the world”.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, said that US-China interactions “should be defined by dialogue and win-win cooperation, not confrontation and zero-sum competition.”

The Bali meeting marked a return to diplomatic engagement that was suspended for three months following the controversial visit by then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan.

Both Biden and Xi agreed to empower their senior officials to maintain communication in addressing transnational challenges such as climate change, global macroeconomic stability, and food security. They encouraged regular cooperation through existing mechanisms, including joint working groups.

What changed after Bali

The optimism surrounding a return to regular diplomatic contact did not last long. Three months after the meeting, tensions reached a fever pitch when an alleged Chinese spy balloon was seen flying in US airspace.

A US fighter jet shot down the balloon off the coast of South Carolina. China, however, has stressed many times that the balloon was an unmanned civilian airship that went off course by accident, and that the US had overreacted.

The balloon incident resulted in US Secretary of State Antony Blinken scrapping his planned trip to China, which was due to take place the day after the US shot down the balloon. Diplomatic engagement was disrupted and virtually all channels of communication were cut off.

High-level contact resumed partially in May, following a series of visits by US Cabinet officers to Beijing and the continued engagement of the joint working groups. Blinken met Xi in Beijing in June, and they agreed to stabilise US-China relations.

In September, both sides agreed to launch two new working groups on financial and economic matters, fulfilling a commitment made during US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s visit to Beijing in July. The working groups are jointly led by Yellen and Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng. Yellen is hosting He in San Francisco for meetings this week, ahead of the Apec Summit.

Global conflict

The ongoing Israel-Hamas war will almost certainly feature prominently at the San Francisco summit.

According to the Washington-based political newspaper Politico, “China in recent years has increasingly sought to flex its diplomatic chops on the global stage and retains solid ties with Iran, a key funder of the Palestinian militant group Hamas.”

On the other hand, Joseph Liow, dean of Nanyang Technological University’s College of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, said that the US has “far more investment” in this situation than China, because of the US’ longstanding relationship with Israel and other Arab states.

He noted, however, that the talks on the Middle East would not distract the US from its focus on engaging China.

“The US leadership has made it very clear that their No 1 priority is the competition with China, and they are prepared to invest their resources for the long run,” he said.

Regarding Taiwan, a consensus was reached in Bali that both sides do not wish to see any conflict, and that the US respects the “One China” policy. However, disagreements have persisted as each side continues to accuse the other of unilaterally breaking the status quo.

“The US’ (position) on Taiwan has always been open to interpretation, and the Chinese have always been uncomfortable about the lack of assurance,” said Prof Liow.

The Russia-led war in Ukraine is also likely to come up at some point when Biden and Xi meet. With the US stretched in its ability to respond to numerous concurrent security challenges, Washington wants to re-establish regular military contact with China as soon as possible.

Last month, the US Department of Defense sent a delegation to the Beijing Xiangshan Forum, the largest annual military diplomacy event in China.

Window of opportunity

The window for China and the US to repair their relationship is a small one, given how campaigning for next year’s US presidential election will enter full swing in March, said Jia Qingguo, the former dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University.

“Whenever you have a presidential election, the candidates will compete to get tough on China,” he said at the Asia Future Summit in Singapore last month.

Prof Liow, meanwhile, warned against having too-high hopes for relations to improve significantly, due to the vastly different agendas of both countries.

“Having the two leaders stand side by side and agree to endorse efforts to have their officials discuss further details in the hope of finding common ground – that is the best (we can hope for),” he said.

At the Bloomberg New Economy Forum on Nov 8, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said a meeting between the US and China leaders is necessary as it would help improve tensions.

“You need the meeting to head in the right direction, but you do not expect a meeting to make everything sweetness and light again. It’s not possible,” he said.