Hopes dim for swift end to Iran war after Trump speech; oil prices surge
Stocks slide, US dollar gains after US president says military operations would be intensified in the next two to three weeks
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[WASHINGTON, DC] Hopes for a swift end to the Middle East war faded on Thursday (Apr 2) after US President Donald Trump vowed more aggressive strikes on Iran, sending oil prices back well over US$100 a barrel in a blow to consumers around the world.
Stocks slid and the US dollar gained after Trump said military operations would be intensified, without offering the timeline that investors had sought for ending hostilities against Iran.
“We’re going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We’re going to bring them back to the Stone Ages where they belong,” Trump said in a Wednesday evening prime-time speech.
Trump added the US would achieve its military objectives soon but suggested the war could escalate if Iranian leaders did not give in to Washington’s terms during negotiations, with strikes on Iran’s energy and oil infrastructure possible.
Iran’s armed forces responded with a warning for the US and Israel of “more crushing, broader and more destructive” attacks in store.
The war will continue until the “permanent regret and surrender” of Iran’s enemies, spokesperson for the Iranian military’s Khatam al-Anbiya central headquarters, Ebrahim Zolfaqari, said in a statement carried by Iranian media.
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Countries discuss ways to secure Strait of Hormuz
Fears are growing that the conflict may leave Iran with a stranglehold over Middle East energy supplies now that it has shown that it can block the vital Strait of Hormuz by targeting oil tankers and attacking Gulf countries hosting US troops.
Trump, who has said he may end the war without a deal, noted countries that rely on fuel shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been all but closed by Iranian attacks, should “just grab it”.
European and other states have said they will only help secure the strait if there is a ceasefire. With pressure growing, some 35 countries were due to explore ways to restore freedom of navigation at virtual talks hosted by Britain on Thursday.
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Gulf states say they reserve the right to self-defence but have not responded militarily to repeated attacks by Iran over the past month to avoid escalation into a far more devastating all-out Middle East war.
Iran’s parliament was reviewing a Bill that would formalise the blocking of vessels from hostile countries passing through the strait and the charging of tolls for others wishing to pass, spokesperson Abbas Goodarzi said.
Thousands of people have been killed across the Middle East since Feb 28, when the US and Israel began air strikes on Iran, triggering Iranian attacks on Israel, US bases and the Gulf states, while opening a new front in Lebanon.
Iran said air strikes had badly damaged some of its largest steel producers as well as Teheran’s Pasteur Institute of Iran medical research centre.
The country’s Revolutionary Guards said they had targeted US-linked steel and aluminium facilities in Gulf states and would step up such attacks if Iranian industries were hit again.
US citizens urged to leave Iraq
Israel, which shoots down most Iranian missiles, reported new incoming salvoes on Thursday. Saudi Arabia said it had intercepted four drones and Abu Dhabi said it had intercepted a missile, with minor damage near an economic zone.
The US embassy in Baghdad urged its citizens to leave Iraq, warning of attacks in the capital by Iran-allied militia in the next 24 to 48 hours.
Fuel shortages have already caused economic strains across Asia and they are expected to bite in Europe soon.
Italy’s foreign minister said migration flows would increase if the conflict were to drag on.
Benchmark Brent crude prices jumped by about 8 per cent to around US$109 per barrel and stocks took a hit, with little reassurance from Trump’s address about how the strait would reopen.
“The key question in all investors’ minds is: ‘When is this going to be over?’” said Russel Chesler, head of Investments and Capital Markets at VanEck Australia.
The International Monetary Fund, World Bank and International Energy Agency on Wednesday warned the war was having “substantial, global and highly asymmetric” effects and said they would coordinate their response, including through potential financial support to those countries hit hardest.
In an interview with Reuters earlier on Wednesday, Trump said US-Israeli strikes had ensured Iran would not obtain nuclear weapons, adding that US forces could return with “spot hits” if the threat resurfaces.
“We are systematically dismantling the regime’s ability to threaten America or project power outside of their borders,” he added.
Prospects elusive for near-term resolution
Prior to Trump’s remarks, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a letter addressed to the American people that his country harbours no enmity towards ordinary Americans.
Trump said discussions were ongoing with Iranian leaders he considered less radical than previous leaders.
A senior Iranian source told Reuters on Wednesday that Teheran is demanding a guaranteed ceasefire to halt its attacks and said no talks have taken place through intermediaries on a temporary truce.
US Vice-President JD Vance communicated with Pakistani intermediaries about the Iran conflict as recently as Tuesday, according to a source briefed on the matter, making clear Trump was open to a ceasefire if certain demands were met.
Pakistan, which has good relations with the US and Iran, had said it hoped to host direct talks between the warring sides soon but its foreign ministry spokesperson noted on Thursday there was no confirmation so far of any US plans to attend. REUTERS
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