IMF warns fragmented commodities markets imperils food security, green transition
FRAGMENTED commodities markets, mainly driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, threaten food security and risk raising the price of cleaner energy, the International Monetary Fund warned.
Minerals critical for the green transition, including cobalt, lithium and copper, as well as highly-traded agricultural products such as wheat are especially vulnerable to “geo-economic fragmentation,” the IMF said on Tuesday (Oct 3), referring to a rising trend of policy-driven reversals of integration.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and Western sanctions have disrupted global markets for food, fuel and fertiliser, keeping prices elevated and exacerbating inflation pressures. Meanwhile, the US has been seeking new trade partnerships focused on so-called critical minerals, which are necessary for green technology, as concern grows over China’s dominant supply position.
“Commodity market fragmentation could create a more unstable global environment, posting threats to food security, economic growth, and the cost of climate change mitigation efforts,” the IMF said in a portion of its upcoming World Economic Outlook. “Our findings present yet another argument for multilateral cooperation on trade policies to prevent such outcomes.”
While overall global growth would take a mild hit, low-income and other vulnerable countries could see an average long-term drag on growth of 1.2 per cent, mainly because of the impact on agricultural imports. Losses for some countries could go as deep as 2 per cent.
In the absence of multilateral guardrails, the IMF suggested the creation of “green corridor” agreements – to safeguard the flow of minerals needed for decarbonisation – and food corridor deals – to ensure equal access across all countries and national incomes. BLOOMBERG
GET BT IN YOUR INBOX DAILY
Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox.
KEYWORDS IN THIS ARTICLE
BT is now on Telegram!
For daily updates on weekdays and specially selected content for the weekend. Subscribe to t.me/BizTimes
Global
Melinda Gates to step down as co-chair of Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
IMF staff, Argentina reach agreement on latest review of US$44 billion programme
Biden’s China tariffs salvo to range from doubling to quadruple
China silver trading powerhouse eyes expansion in Singapore
Chinese e-commerce giants face delicate balance between discounts, profit
Global chips battle intensifies with US$81 billion subsidy surge