Iran war to double Russia’s main oil revenue to 700 billion roubles in April
A calculation by Reuters suggests this is the first evidence of a windfall for the country from the conflict
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[MOSCOW] Russia’s revenue from its biggest single oil tax will double to 700 billion roubles in April. This is due to the oil and gas crisis triggered by the US and Israeli attack on Iran, Reuters calculations showed on Thursday (Apr 9).
The Reuters calculation is some of the first evidence of a windfall for the country from the Iran war, which oil traders say has triggered the most serious energy crisis in recent history. It is the world’s second-largest oil exporter.
Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz – a route for about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows – after the US-Israeli attack on Iran at the end of February, sending Brent futures shooting well past US$100 a barrel.
Russia’s main revenue from its vast oil and gas industry is based on production. Export duty on crude oil was nullified from the start of 2024 as part of the so called wider tax manoeuvre, a years-long tax reform of the industry.
Based on Reuters calculations using preliminary production data and oil prices, Russia’s mineral extraction tax on oil output will increase to around 700 billion roubles (S$11.5 billion) in April, from 327 billion roubles in March.
The revenue is up by some 10 per cent from April 2025.
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For the whole of 2026, Russia has budgeted for 7.9 trillion roubles from the mineral extraction tax.
Russian energy in demand
The average price of Russia’s Urals crude, used for taxation, jumped to US$77 a barrel in March, its highest since October 2023, based on economy ministry data.
That was up 73 per cent from February’s US$44.59 a barrel, and above the level of US$59 assumed in this year’s state budget.
The Kremlin said on Tuesday that a huge number of requests for Russian energy came from different places amid a grave global energy crisis that was shaking the foundations of the oil and gas markets.
Still, there are limits on the windfall for Russia, and economists inside Russia have repeatedly cautioned that 2026 could be a tough year.
Russia ran a budget deficit of 4.58 trillion roubles, or 1.9 per cent of its gross domestic product, in the January-to-March quarter, the finance ministry said on Wednesday.
Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, with an aim to cripple Moscow’s finances, have also contributed to lower earnings and threaten oil production cuts.
The size of the windfall for Russia will ultimately depend on how long the Iran crisis lasts. REUTERS
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