Japan is wrestling with its own flawed leader
JUST as the US Democratic Party is wrestling with the possibility of going into a crucial election with a deeply flawed candidate, panic is setting in among Japan’s ruling party over the unpopular Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. In a year where overconfident incumbents are getting their comeuppance the world over, decision time is looming in Tokyo, too.
Former Liberal Democratic Party leader Yoshihide Suga fired the starting gun on the race to replace Kishida last month when he blasted the party leader in a scathing interview.
“Recently, I hear cries of anguish within the LDP saying that if things continue as they are, there will be a change of government,” Suga told Bungei Shunju magazine. He directly criticised the prime minister’s failure to take responsibility for a recent funding scandal, and called for the LDP to renew itself in order to restore public trust.
Within the all-smiles world of Japanese politics, such public criticism is rare.
Leading newspapers on both sides of the political sphere termed the comments a “de-facto demand” for Kishida’s resignation. While Suga won’t himself run for leader, his backing will be crucial in deciding what’s set to be one of the most unusual races for Japan’s leadership in recent times.
Just as any attempt to replace US President Joe Biden with Vice-President Kamala Harris, or another candidate in an open convention, would be unprecedented, the race for LDP leader will be highly irregular.
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It will be the first leadership race since five of the six party factions were disbanded in the aftermath of the financing scandal that broke late last year, which has upended how politics are conducted in the country.
Previously, faction leaders would dictate which way votes would flow. Now, even political analysts are unsure how party members will decide.
With members fretting about the prospect of a general election with Kishida at the helm, the path might be open for a publicly popular candidate. That would be good news for the perennial challengers Taro Kono, the digital minister beloved of overseas investors and commentators, or former Defence Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who regularly tops opinion polls. Both men are reportedly preparing to enter the election.
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History might also repeat itself in the form of Shinjiro Koizumi, son of former maverick prime minister Junichiro.
The younger Koizumi has long been believed to be biding his time and accumulating experience before launching a leadership bid, but a recent tabloid report suggests he might run this time. Takayuki Kobayashi, a former economic security minister, is also generating an unusual amount of buzz lately.
Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa could stand if Kishida does not, and would likely be a safe pair of hands as well as shattering the glass ceiling if she became the first female prime minister (though a recent gaffe has damaged her standing.)
Sanae Takaichi would do the same, though some may not care for her brand of right-wing politics. It’s also possible that a new leader might emerge from more typical candidates: LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi is long known to harbour leadership ambitions, while former Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato is another who Suga approves of.
A successful LDP leader must be able to unite the party’s broad church, without leaning too far to either left or right. But they also must have a connection with the public. This is where Kishida has stumbled.
The premier has many policy achievements, from reopening the country after Covid to securing support for increased defence spending. He’s overseen stocks finally surpassing 1989 highs, and his pick for Bank of Japan Governor, Kazuo Ueda, has begun to steer the nation out of years of abnormal monetary policy without causing chaos.
But people, sadly, don’t care. Kishida lacks the savvy of the top political operators. He has spent months readying policy responses on scandals such as party connections to the Unification Church and slush-fund revelations, only to receive no recognition for his efforts.
Worse, his decision to not step down over the scandals sits uneasily with voters, who tend to expect such contrition. He is also reported to be losing the support of another former leader, Taro Aso, who controls the LDP’s last remaining faction.
While unclear if Kishida will stand again, like Biden he’s stubborn, and seems to be gearing for a fight (and at 66, is still relatively young.) As in the US, it’s still possible the status quo might prevail. For all the talk of a change in government, there is no Japanese Trump looming.
Opposition parties are fractured and disorganised, with none of the groundswell of support that was bubbling for the opposition Democratic Party of Japan when they claimed power in 2009.
While the US public now seems to think of the pre-Covid years of Donald Trump as a golden era, most in Japan still wince thinking of the disastrous DPJ years.
But the risks are real nonetheless. And just as Biden must, Kishida needs to ask himself if this is the right course — for himself, for his party, and for the country. BLOOMBERG
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