Trump’s Venezuela gambit tests investor appetite for geopolitical risk
Markets stay calm as Venezuela’s global oil share is small
[SINGAPORE] Markets may have shrugged off the audacious US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, but some investors warn that geopolitical risks are perhaps being underestimated after Donald Trump threatened further action in the Americas.
Investors held their nerve on Monday (Jan 5), with stocks in Asia surging and oil prices down modestly although safe-haven flows lifted gold prices, after President Trump said the US would take control of the oil-producing nation.
While Washington has not made such a direct intervention in Latin America since the invasion of Panama in 1989, Trump’s threats against Colombia and Mexico highlighted the aggressive shift in US policy and brought geopolitical perils back to the fore for financial markets at the start of the year.
“We’re being reminded that geopolitical risks are much larger than some number cast on imports,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research for Asia Ex-Japan at Mizuho Securities in Singapore.
“The case and the question in mind is – Is broader LatAm stability at risk? Then it’s a different proposition isn’t it, the flow-through effects and all could be much greater.”
Analysts and investors said the relatively calm market reaction to Maduro’s capture was because Venezuela’s oil production relative to global output is small and it would take years of investment for production to catch up.
Still, the far-reaching impact of the military actions will weigh on sentiment, although the move could unlock Venezuela’s vast oil reserves and boost risk assets over the longer-term.
American oil companies are prepared to tackle the difficult task of entering Venezuela and investing to restore production in the South American country, Trump said.
“There should be broader geopolitical implications from this event, but in my view, the financial markets are not very efficient in pricing such risks accurately,” said Tai Hui, chief market strategist for Asia-Pacific at JPMorgan Asset Management.
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The immediate impact is likely to be seen in the defence sector as countries are expected to keep raising defence spending in the wake of Trump’s readiness to use US military force as part of his broader policy agenda. At the same time, the heightened uncertainty around US policies will weigh on the US dollar and its safe-haven status, analysts say.
The US dollar firmed a bit on Monday but is coming off its worst year since 2017, dropping over 9 per cent against major currencies in 2025.
For investors, Trump’s actions in Venezuela have also raised uneasy questions about their implications for China’s posture towards Taiwan and whether Washington might push more aggressively for regime change in Iran.
However, Li Fang-kuo, chairman of Taiwan food conglomerate Uni-President stock investment advisory unit, said investors are not worried that China might attack Taiwan.
“Yes, China has staged military drills around Taiwan, but we’ve seen nothing like the months of escalation we saw from the US (against Venezuela).”
Indeed, some analysts say investors have increasingly become used to Trump’s various foreign policy and military gambits.
Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, said the US action in Venezuela is more of a geopolitical bombshell rather than an oil shock for now, noting that unless it threatens the broader supply chain, investors tend to rotate back to rates, earnings, and positioning.
“We’re in a regime where geopolitics has become a persistent feature, not a surprise.” REUTERS
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