US midterm elections: Democrats surge toward control of Congress in setback for Trump

[WASHINGTON] Democrats scored stunning victories in the South Carolina, Texas and Ohio Senate races, seizing Republican strongholds and moving to the verge of winning a Senate majority as tens of millions of voters delivered a scathing rebuke to President Donald Trump.

Democrats were also on track to take control of the US House of Representatives after flipping at least eight Republican seats in states including Kentucky, New Jersey and North Carolina and showing strength even in solidly conservative districts.

In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown will return to the Senate after defeating Republican incumbent Jon Husted, while Texas Democratic state Representative James Talarico withstood a barrage of outside spending to defeat scandal-plagued Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Both Ohio and Texas voted for Trump by a double-digit margin just two years ago.

In South Carolina, a state that Trump carried by nearly 18 points in 2024, pediatrician Annie Andrews triumphed over Republican Senator Darline Graham, who was appointed to the seat after the death of her brother, Senator Lindsey Graham.

Trump elevated Paxton and Graham ahead of more established candidates despite clear liabilities. Paxton has been at the center of a litany of controversies, including his 2023 impeachment and securities fraud charges, while Graham’s admitted inexperience drew negative headlines.

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Trump campaigned heavily for Paxton, Graham and Husted as part of a late election blitz that included more than two dozen rallies, and the president told his supporters repeatedly to “pretend I’m on the ballot” in an effort to fire up his base.

On Tuesday night, as it grew clear Republicans were in danger of losing their congressional majorities, Trump wrote on social media, “I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE! Thank you for your attention to this matter.”

The Democratic wave underscored voters’ deep frustration with Trump’s stewardship of the economy and his decision to launch a war against Iran in February, which drove petrol prices up sharply. In poll after poll, voters expressed anxiety about the cost of living and anger at the way Trump has handled the issue.

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Along with Roy Cooper’s win in North Carolina’s Senate race, Democrats have flipped the four seats they need to capture a Senate majority, as long as they hold their own seats in Michigan and Minnesota.

Democrats also retained Senate seats in Georgia and New Hampshire, both races that were once considered competitive but moved out of reach for Republicans amid Trump’s declining approval ratings.

In Florida, Republican Senator Ashley Moody fended off Democrat Angie Nixon but was ahead by only about 3 percentage points in a state Trump carried by 13 points in 2024, according to a vote count compiled by Reuters and USA Today, further evidence that even solidly Republican states were shifting dramatically toward Democrats.

Democrats held onto three House districts in Florida that Republican lawmakers had redrawn earlier this year, all of which backed Trump by at least 9 percentage points. The fate of the House overall remained uncertain, with the majority of races still uncalled.

According to exit polls conducted by SSRS on behalf of a consortium of US media outlets including major television networks and the Associated Press, half of voters said they saw the 2026 midterm elections as an opportunity to rebuke the president, and three-quarters said they are “angry” or “dissatisfied” with the way the country is headed.

In addition, 70 per cent of voters surveyed said they want Congress to provide more checks and balances on the president.

Midterm elections are typically seen as a referendum on the president, and that is particularly true for Trump, who dominates attention like no other modern politician. Trump himself has told his supporters to “pretend I’m on the ballot”, a message Democratic leaders have happily echoed.

In televised remarks on Tuesday that appeared aimed at swaying voters unhappy with US support for Israel, Trump said that he intended to stop US$3.8 billion in promised annual funding to Israel after the end of this year, but it was unclear how he would do so, given a 2020 law mandating the funding levels.

The close US-Israel alliance has been a particular focus in Michigan, where progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, who would become the first Muslim US senator if elected, has faced millions of dollars in opposition spending from Israel-linked groups over his criticisms of the US ally.

Led by Trump, Republicans have portrayed El-Sayed, 42, and other Democratic candidates as radical, un-American and even communist, labels that Democrats dismiss as typical Trump hyperbole.

The president has sought to energise his base with more than two dozen campaign rallies since the start of October, most in states he easily won in 2024, underscoring Republicans’ defensive posture.

Opinion polls show voters are most concerned about affordability and disapprove of Trump’s handling of the issue. His tariffs on imports, many of which the courts threw out, and his decision to attack Iran in February raised prices for consumers.

Trump deploys election monitors

Legal observers and Democrats have warned that Trump, who has long falsely claimed that US elections are rigged, may attempt to challenge Tuesday’s results if Republicans lose.

The US Justice Department said it had deployed 1,000 election monitors and observers to all 50 states in what it called the largest Election Day monitoring effort in history.

Democrats criticised the plan as potential voter intimidation. In roughly two-thirds of the jurisdictions the department listed, voters supported Democrat Kamala Harris over Trump in the 2024 presidential election, a Reuters analysis found.

All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election, along with 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats, though most contests are not considered competitive. Democrats must flip at least three House seats and four Senate seats to win a majority in each chamber.

There are 47 US House races widely seen as competitive, according to a Reuters analysis of the leading election forecasters. If the other contests all proceed as predicted, Democrats would need to win only 13 of those races to secure a majority.

But Democrats have little margin for error in the Senate. The party must defend all of its current seats while winning at least two states that voted for Trump by a double-digit margin two years ago, such as Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas.

Opinion polls show Democrats either narrowly leading or within striking distance in all of those states.

Election intrigue in Alaska

A New York Times report upended the Alaska Senate race when it reported that the campaign of Democratic candidate Mary Peltola, 53, helped recruit a third candidate to run as an independent who shares the first and last name of her Republican opponent, Dan Sullivan, 61.

Peltola has denied involvement. Trump’s Justice Department has launched a criminal probe into the allegations and filed a lawsuit to block certification of the election results, though a judge dismissed the latter effort.

Supporters of the incumbent Sullivan said they were not confused by the presence of two Dan Sullivans on the ballot.

“They make it pretty obvious: It says ‘incumbent’ after his name,” said Jake Wesley, 27, who grew up in Anchorage and is now stationed there in the US Air Force. In recent days, Trump has complained repeatedly that voters may not know the meaning of the word. REUTERS