Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt will announce the UK’s next budget on March 6, giving the governing Conservatives what’s likely their last opportunity to announce giveaways before a general election.

The chancellor is under pressure from Tory Members of Parliament to announce further tax cuts in the budget after announcing a surprise two percentage-point reduction in the National Insurance payroll tax in his Autumn Statement last month.

Trailing the opposition Labour Party by about 20 points in national polls, some Conservative strategists see reductions in income and inheritance taxes as a way to boost the party’s appeal among voters.

The budget date in early March keeps the option open for the Conservatives to hold a spring election, though given their polling deficit most Westminster observers expect a vote in the fall.

Nevertheless, Hunt’s decision to time the National Insurance cut for January – rather than the start of the new tax year in April – triggered speculation he was laying the ground for an early election by giving voters more time to feel the benefit. In ensuing broadcast rounds, the chancellor added fuel to that theory by failing to rule out holding his spring budget sooner than March. 

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak must call a national vote within a year and hold it by the end of January 2025. If he were to go in the spring, May 2 would make the most sense because local elections are already due to be held that day. BLOOMBERG

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