Iran war has ‘no easy way out,’ ex-US Defence chief Austin says

 “THERE is no easy way out” of the Iran conflict at this point, former US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said at a security forum in Poland.

“Both sides currently believe that they can outlast the other side,” Austin said on Monday (Oct 12) at a panel discussion during the Warsaw Security Forum, adding that resolving the conflict would require “some expert diplomacy.”

The US and Iran have hardened their positions over time and although the Iranian economy is under severe strain, the government in Teheran is used to such pressures even if they hurt Iranian civilians, he said.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly said the two sides are making progress, but results have not followed. Trump also regularly threatens military escalation against Teheran, but doesn’t always order new attacks.

The president’s statements on Iran are increasingly tied to close-run US midterm elections as rising fuel prices sparked by the conflict have become a key issue for voters. 

The US-Iran war has damaged infrastructure around the region and destroyed US bases and other facilities. Meanwhile Iran has shown its forces can hold the Strait of Hormuz under threat despite a shattered air force and navy.

All that goes to show that the Gulf Region will “never return” to its prewar state, Austin said. He declined to say whether Trump’s war was a strategic mistake, saying history would be the judge.

Austin also pointed to the growing technological cooperation between US adversaries, citing public reporting that China was providing data for airstrikes.

“We saw a militia group in Iraq fly a drone hundreds of miles across a desert and hit a Saudi pipeline,” he said. “That sort of targeting is sophisticated.”

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That comes as the wars in Ukraine and the Gulf are increasingly entangled, with Iran offering support Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also spoke at the forum via video link, saying his country will continue to respond with long-range strikes against Russia unless Moscow agrees to an energy ceasefire that still hasn’t happened.

Austin said that the Russian leader hadn’t achieved any of his goals in Ukraine, and that Kyiv’s strikes on Russian oil infrastructure were adding pressure on Moscow.

He said the recent US proposal to release Russian diesel supplies into the global market wouldn’t do much to improve fuel affordability.

“The amount of fuel we’re talking about won’t have a significant impact on the price at the pump,” Austin said, adding that he agreed with Zelensky’s concerns that the deal would allow Putin to continue his full-scale invasion, now in its fifth year. BLOOMBERG