Iran war upends IEA's global oil market outlook

[LONDON] The International Energy Agency (IEA) sharply cut its forecasts for global oil supply and demand growth, saying both are now expected to fall from 2025 levels as war in the Middle East disrupts oil flows and weighs on the global economy.

The IEA now sees global oil demand falling by 80,000 barrels per day in 2026, compared with a projected year-on-year rise of 640,000 bpd in its previous monthly report.

“Demand destruction will spread as scarcity and higher prices persist,” the IEA said, adding that the deepest cuts in oil consumption have come from the Middle East and Asia-Pacific so far.

The Paris-based watchdog forecasts global oil supply to fall by 1.5 million bpd this year, crashing from a 1.1 million bpd projected rise last month.

Attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East and Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have led to the largest oil supply disruption in history, the IEA said, with 10.1 million bpd lost in March. REUTERS