As Japan’s population shrinks, a city is accused of padding census numbers

[HONG KONG] In Japan, one of the world’s most rapidly graying societies, officials often face pressure to stem the tide of demographic decline, which can bring budget cuts and public shame. Now, one city is being accused of inflating its numbers to avoid the appearance of a shrinking population.

Regional police raided city hall in Toyama, in western Japan, on Saturday (Oct 3), after a central government ministry said it had found inconsistencies during a review of census data.

Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said last week that it had filed a complaint against city officials involved with the census, accusing them of inflating population numbers by adding empty households to the survey.

Experts say the falsification claims reflect the extremes that some local governments will go through to maintain at least the appearance of stable population levels.

Japan’s population peaked at 128 million in 2008, and currently stands at 123 million people, roughly the same size it was in 1989.

Mayor Hirohisa Fujii of Toyama apologised in a statement on Saturday and said that city officials would cooperate fully with the police investigation. Falsifying statistics can be punishable by fines or imprisonment of up to six months under Japanese law.

Kenta Tsuji, an official at the population census division of the ministry, said inconsistencies in the data were discovered during the final review stage of census data but declined to offer details about how they were found.

There was a discrepancy of nearly 3,000 people between a population estimate released in May and the final census record for Toyama’s population published last week.

The largest city in Toyama prefecture, and also its capital, Toyama sits at the edge of the Japanese Alps.

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Home to around 400,000 residents, it has been held up by the World Bank as a “global role model” of a compact city that has limited urban sprawl and an overreliance on cars.

Japan’s national census is conducted every five years. In May, when a separate population count showed that the city’s population had dipped below 400,000, Fujii expressed concern.

“While I view the 400,000 mark as just one milestone, I do believe this carries significant weight,” he told reporters at the time. “The fact that we have dropped below this figure has made a strong impression on me.”

Population numbers important for local governments

Population estimates can be financially crucial for local governments. The central government typically allots subsidies to local governments according to their population size, and some smaller regions have faced significant budget cuts after drops in population.

On Friday, Fujii said subsidies from the central government could drop by US$380,000 because of lower population as well as a decline in the number of school children.

Experts say that officials may have sought to keep up with nearby cities such as Kanazawa and Niigata in neighboring prefectures, which are home to 450,000 and 750,000 people, respectively.

Nobuo Sasaki, a professor emeritus of economics at Chuo University and expert in urban administration, said that the city may have tried “at all costs” to maintain its status as an equal to the other cities, which have become increasingly popular as tourist destinations.

“Another possibility is that staff members, fearing that the city’s reputation as a successful model of compact city development would be tarnished, resorted to misconduct in an attempt to save face,” Sasaki said in an interview.

In May, Fujii, Toyama’s mayor, said that it was an “urgent priority” for the city to increase its birth rate. “It is crucial that, even as the population declines, we ensure the rate of decline is gradual,” he said. NYTIMES