JPMorgan estimates Turkey direct quake damage at US$25 billion, expects rate cut

DIRECT costs to physical structures in Turkey from the devastating earthquake on Feb 6 could amount to 2.5 per cent of growth domestic product or US$25 billion, with risks to the upside, JPMorgan said on Thursday (Feb 16).

The combined death toll from the quake in Turkey and Syria has climbed to more than 41,000, and millions are in need of humanitarian aid, with many survivors having been left homeless in near-freezing winter temperatures.

“The earthquake in Turkey has led to a tragic loss of life and carries meaningful economic implications,” economist Fatih Akcelik wrote in a note to clients.

JPMorgan also said it expected now that the central bank would cut interest rates by another 100 basis points at its meeting next week to 8 per cent.

“The political leadership signalled further rate cuts even before the earthquake,” he said. “We do not rule out more rate cuts ahead of the elections originally scheduled for Jun 18. Yet, we believe that the policy rate is less relevant now as the monetary policy transmission mechanism is broken in Turkey.” REUTERS