Modi eyes milestone win as key Indian states begin vote counts

[NEW DELHI] India begins counting votes in several key states on Monday (May 4), providing a barometer of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity in the face of heightened economic challenges.

The stakes are particularly high in the eastern state of West Bengal, where Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is seeking its first win against Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who has been in power for 15 years. Exit polls at the end of voting last week showed the BJP holding a slight edge over Banerjee’s party.

The campaign saw a bitter contest between the two sides and was dominated by controversial changes to voter rolls, which the opposition said Modi’s party was using to tilt the election in his favour. Known as the Special Intensive Revision, the exercise overshadowed traditional campaign issues such as jobs and inflation.

A victory in West Bengal would expand the BJP’s support beyond its traditional strongholds in northern and western India. The state also carries significant political weight, with the third-highest representation in the lower house of parliament, or Lok Sabha.

West Bengal results matter not just for the state but for national politics, as they could set the tone for national elections in 2029, said Priyankar Upadhyaya, a political analyst and Unesco chair professor of peace at Banaras Hindu University.

“This election, in particular, was fought with unusual aggression and intensity, as West Bengal is still seen as a citadel of the opposition,” he said.

A win in West Bengal would solidify Modi’s popularity and mark a turnaround from two years ago when the BJP failed to secure a majority in the general election.

It would also help to strengthen the prime minister’s hand as he grapples with economic pressures triggered by the Iran war. India is heavily reliant on energy supplies from the Middle East and has been hit by gas shortages and surging oil costs. The rupee has plunged to a record low, and the government has warned that higher inflation could curb demand in the economy.

The BJP and Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress party promised cash handouts to women and unemployed youth to lure voters. Turnout in the election was unusually high at over 90 per cent as hundreds of thousands of Bengali workers across the country made the trip home to cast their ballots, concerned they may lose access to benefits after the voter revision exercise.

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The Election Commission removed about nine million names from the rolls, saying the move was aimed at removing duplicate entries and illegal migrants. Opposition groups alleged that Modi’s Hindu-nationalist party used the exercise to target mainly poor and Muslim voters.

“For the BJP, a loss in Bengal – despite an aggressive campaign and institutional advantages – would highlight the limits of its Hindutva-driven ideology and expansion strategy,” wrote Chetna Kumar, Bloomberg’s geoeconomics analyst for South Asia. “For Banerjee, the stakes are higher: retaining power is central to sustaining her national ambitions and positioning her as a credible challenger to Modi in 2029.”

The Election Commission will also release vote results for the states of Assam, Tamil Nadu and Kerala, which went to the polls in April.

In neighbouring Assam, exit polls showed the BJP-led alliance was projected to win a third consecutive term, paving the way for Himanta Biswa Sarma to continue as chief minister. The party focused its campaign on security and illegal migration from neighbouring Bangladesh, while promising increased spending on development projects.

Investors would be watching closely for results in Tamil Nadu, the opposition-controlled southern state, which is home to car factories, electronics manufacturing and key facilities for Apple’s iPhone production.

The state is governed by Chief Minister MK Stalin, whose Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam party was on track to retain power for the second consecutive time, most exit polls showed. The BJP is a minority partner in an alliance with the regional All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. It contested 27 seats, leaving the rest to its local ally and other partners.

Kerala has a history of switching governments in elections. Exit polls showed an alliance led by the Indian National Congress party defeating a coalition led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist), for the first time since 2016. The BJP is a minor player in the state’s politics and failed to win a seat in the 2021 state elections. BLOOMBERG