Nearly 60% of global CEOs, investors expect deglobalisation to ramp up in 2026: report

[SINGAPORE] Close to 60 per cent of global chief executives and investors anticipate that deglobalisation will accelerate in the coming year, a Teneo report released on Monday (Dec 15) has shown.

Deglobalisation can be understood as a reduction of international trade, investments and movement of people among countries.

The trend, with US President Donald Trump’s tariffs earlier this year and a shift in priority towards national security held by countries could have a major impact on supply chains, as a result of increased protectionism levels and trade barriers.

To CEOs in the Asia-Pacific and in the Middle East and North African (Mena) regions, this phenomenon is taking place more slowly. In the eyes of Latin American leaders, however, deglobalisation is speeding up.

The divergence on this topic stems from where each region sits in the current reconfiguration of the global supply chain, suggested Juan Jose Perojo, head of financial advisory in Latin America for Teneo.

“In Latin America, executives might feel deglobalisation more sharply because the region is being pulled directly into US and European supply-chain realignment,” he said.

“Near-shoring, commodities and energy-transition investments create both opportunity and exposure, which could make the pace of change appear faster and more structural.”

Executives in the Asia-Pacific and Mena could be experiencing the same forces “with a degree of insulation”, the financial advisory head noted.

This comes as Mena continues to benefit from strong investment flows tied to sovereign-driven development programmes and energy-transition logistics.

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“Apac enjoys robust regional trade even as global supply chains rewire,” Perojo noted.

US stays on top; India to eclipse China by 2036

The Monday report said the US is the most attractive market for investments, in the eyes of global CEOs and investors.

Paul Keary, CEO of Teneo, said: “Policies – such as those around technological advancement and regulatory streamlining – create a pro-growth environment (in the US).”

That said, the report also identified countries such as India and China as being on the rise as investment destinations, which points to a “recalibration” of how companies evolve their priorities amid geopolitical shifts.

India is seen by leaders as an underdog in the business world, and global CEOs reckon that, in terms of business strategies, it will be on par with China within five years.

Furthermore, more CEOs said they considered India to be important for their business strategy by 2036, relative to China.

The percentage of CEOs who consider India “extremely important” to business strategy will rise to 47 per cent over the next 10 years, from 33 per cent today; 44 per cent of CEOs said they viewed China as being similarly important over the next decade, from 41 per cent today.

This is in light of how India, to CEOs, is a “demand engine and talent powerhouse”, with market growth and innovation capable of driving global competitiveness for the long term.

CEOs cited India’s “massive and young consumer market” and “growing digital infrastructure and innovation momentum”. They also recognised that the country has become a “top strategic hub for IT and digital services”, said the report.

Despite India’s rising prominence in the business world, China is unlikely to be left too far behind in 2026. If anything, it is likely to “remain central” to any business and investment strategy in the long term.

Investors and CEOs surveyed emphasised that China’s growing middle class, production affordability, supply chain scale, energy sources, and research and development investments have stayed “unmatched”.

Lauren Chung, CEO for Asia-Pacific strategy and communications at Teneo, said: “China’s business is defined by a relentless drive to adapt, lead and innovate.”

AI, the fastest-growing investment area in 2026

Teneo’s report indicated that artificial intelligence (AI) will emerge as the fastest-growing investment area in the coming year; 68 per cent of CEOs plan to raise spending in this field.

It is also the only technology in which CEOs plan to increase investment more quickly than in 2025, the research shows.

Global data indicates that worldwide AI spending will amount to US$1.5 trillion in 2025, and is projected to top US$2 trillion in 2026.

More than half (53 per cent) of investors expect to see a return on investment (ROI) on their AI initiatives in six months or less. Among CEOs for large-cap companies, nearly 85 per cent predict ROI for new AI initiatives will take longer than six months to achieve.

However, fewer than half of AI projects are ROI-positive. “Still, gains are being made across internal efficiency, administrative and customer-facing applications,” the report noted.

ROI aside, both CEOs and investors see the most success of AI in marketing and customer service. Applications that pose the greatest potential risk and complexity – in security, legal and human resources – remain the biggest challenges.

A majority of the CEOs surveyed expect AI to drive hiring in 2026, with 67 per cent of them predicting a rise in entry-level headcount, and 58 per cent expecting an increase for senior leadership.

The report said: “CEOs are prioritising AI augmentation (50 per cent) and upskilling talent (46 per cent) in 2026, reflecting a strategic dual focus on automation and human capability.”

Moving into 2026, over 70 per cent of CEOs and 82 per cent of investors expect the global economy to improve.

But considering the realities of the current global operating environment, large-cap CEO confidence has fallen 20 points year on year, with expectations tempered by concerns about global trade, geopolitical uncertainty and technological disruption, Teneo’s research found.

Meanwhile, mid-cap CEOs and investors remain “overwhelmingly positive” in their outlook for growth. Three out of four CEOs and investors expect to see more mergers and acquisitions activity in the year ahead.

The Vision 2026: CEO and Investor Outlook Survey polled more than 350 global CEOs and 400 institutional investors, representing over US$19 trillion in company and portfolio value.