New era of US-China relations calls for realistic expectations: panellists
Zhao Yifan
THE system of US-China engagement that was working so well for the world is “irrevocably gone” and there is no new system to replace it, said Orville Schell, the Arthur Ross director of the Center on US-China Relations at the Asia Society.
He was one of three panellists at a session titled “US-China cooperation in an age of strategic competition” on the first day of the Asia Future Summit on Wednesday (Oct 4). The conference is jointly hosted by The Business Times, The Straits Times and Lianhe Zaobao. OCBC is the presenting sponsor of Asia Future Summit 2023. The event is also supported by Guocoland and Kingsford Group.
The view that the engagement era has ended was echoed by the other two speakers – Wang Jiangyu, a law professor at the City University of Hong Kong’s School of Law, and Zhu Feng, a professor of international relations at Nanjing University in China.
Prof Zhu characterised the deterioration of the relationship between the US and China – the world’s two largest economies – as “structural”, attributing it to how Washington has shifted to perceive China as its “top strategic competitor” and its “biggest threat”.
He noted that the economic growth experienced by China in recent decades has led to a redistribution of global power, and this has prompted the US to fundamentally recalibrate its China strategy.
On the other hand, Prof Wang drew attention to the unprecedented “changes in perceptions” or even “hatred” that citizens of both countries have developed towards each other.
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A similar view was expressed by Jon Huntsman, a former US ambassador to Singapore, during an earlier panel with the theme “Finding balance amid geopolitical tensions”.
Huntsman – a veteran diplomat who was also a former ambassador to China – said that “one of the most dangerous signs of (the worsening US-China relations) is the view of people in the US towards China and the view of people in China towards the US”.
“This is a structural problem. This is not something you can just release at the negotiating table by coming up with a temporary compromise. This is something that has to be addressed, and it is going to be a long-term effort,” he said.
The panellists also gave their views on the possibility of a conflict over the Taiwan Strait.
Prof Schell said that as the political chemistry has changed in the region and the mainland has deviated from a good trajectory with Taiwan, the previous generations of Chinese leaders’ strategy of “waiting for a natural interest to tie the two together” may no longer be relevant.
He expressed concern that the top leaders “may be painted into a corner where they have to act”.
Both Prof Wang and Prof Zhu, however, said they saw no immediate likelihood of confrontation.
“Taiwan is of key value to the Chinese government, and it’s something that the government will not give in. However, there is no imperative need for the government to take over Taiwan in the short term,” said Prof Wang, citing the difficulty of integrating and governing the region as one reason.
Prof Wang said that “China will not fall into confrontation with the US”, drawing reference to the Chinese ancient philosophy of “lying low”.
“The complexity of the Taiwan issue reflects the new dynamics of the strategic competition between the two countries”, with the core of the competition being a “tech war” over advanced technology, he said.
During his session, Huntsman highlighted three key themes of US-China relations – mutual respect, peaceful co-existence and the avoidance of conflict.
“Over the past few decades, we viewed the relationship as being too capable of big and ambitious things. In today’s world, we have to moderate that,” he said.
The other three speakers agreed that there was a need to recalibrate US-China relations.
Said Prof Zhu: “I am neither optimistic nor pessimistic (about the trajectory of US-China relations). We should have very reasonable expectations for bilateral relations. Nevertheless, we still need enthusiasm as the US-China relationship is the most important and most complicated in the world.”
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