Oil slips as debt talks pause, Fed warns of high inflation

OIL prices fell on Friday (May 19), as investors worried that US politicians will fail to agree on a new debt ceiling and trigger a default that would hurt the economy and reduce fuel demand.

Brent futures settled US$0.28 or 0.8 per cent lower at US$75.58 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate US crude for July expiry fell US$0.25 or 0.3 per cent to US$71.69.

The less active US crude contract for May, due to expire on Monday, closed down US$0.31 or 0.4 per cent to US$71.55.

Brent and US crude prices nevertheless notched their first weekly gains in a month, with the both benchmarks rising about 2 per cent.

Oil gave up gains of as much as a dollar after Republicans in the US House of Representatives and President Joe Biden’s administration on Friday paused talks on raising the federal government’s US$31.4 trillion debt ceiling.

The Treasury Department has warned the government could be unable to pay all its bills by Jun 1.

A White House official said a deal remained possible.

Markets were also spooked by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that inflation was “far above” the Fed’s objective, adding no decisions had been made yet on the next interest rate action.

“It doesn’t look they are going to get the debt deal done today... the chance of a 25 basis point (rate) increase in the June meeting is rising by the day... There’s not a lot for the bulls to hang their hats on,” said Mizuho analyst Robert Yawger.

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Powell signals a June pause, says Fed can afford to watch data

Following reports of the paused debt ceiling negotiations and Powell’s comments, US stocks, Treasury yields and the dollar all moved lower.

Providing some support for markets, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reaffirmed the strength and soundness of the country’s banking system in a meeting with bank chief executive officers on Thursday, the Treasury Department said in a statement.

US oil rig count, an indicator of future production, fell by 11 to 575 this week, the biggest weekly drop since September 2021, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said.

Money managers cut their net long US crude futures and options positions in the week to May 16, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission said.

While the potential for additional rate hikes increases concern about demand weakness in the US, prices could rise on higher Chinese demand throughout 2023, said analysts from National Australia Bank.

China’s oil refinery throughput in April rose 18.9 per cent from a year earlier to the second-highest level on record, data showed this week.

Chinese refiners maintained high runs to meet recovering domestic fuel demand and build stockpiles ahead of the summer travel season. REUTERS