Saudi Arabia Budget deficit hits record 94.9 billion riyals in Q4, largest in 5 years
The total shortfall for 2025 is 276.6 billion riyals, roughly 5.5% of GDP
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[MOSCOW] Saudi Arabia’s fiscal deficit widened in the fourth quarter of 2025 to the highest level in five years, as lower oil prices put pressure on the kingdom’s finances.
The government posted a Budget deficit of 94.9 billion riyals (S$32.1 billion) in last three months of 2025.
That brought the total shortfall for the year to nearly 276.6 billion riyals, up from 115.6 billion riyals in 2024, said the Ministry of Finance. The figure for 2025 equated to roughly 5.5 per cent of gross domestic product.
Non-oil revenue climbed to about 122.6 billion riyals in the fourth quarter of 2025, while oil revenue slid to around 154.2 billion riyals from 170.8 billion riyals in 2024, based on ministry data.
The kingdom has been running Budget deficits since late 2022. Bloomberg Economics estimates its oil fiscal breakeven price at US$97 a barrel in 2025, or US$114 when the sovereign wealth fund’s domestic spending is included. That is far below today’s price for Brent at US$71.
The wide gap has led to Saudi Arabia borrowing much more through international bond markets, while diversifying its funding mix through alternative means of financing, including private markets.
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It has also caused the government to accelerate a pullback from some of the huge projects that are part of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 plan to diversify from petroleum.
Officials have said that the focus is now on spending more wisely and drawing in more investments from the private sector in the years ahead.
Expenditures rose slightly in 2025 amid increases in financing expenses and grants, based on the Budget statement released on Monday (Feb 23).
Saudi officials expect the fiscal deficit for this year to decrease to 3.3 per cent of GDP. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Bank of America estimate the figure to be higher at 5 to 6 per cent. BLOOMBERG
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