Shell forecasts LNG demand to grow despite Iran war volatility
It expects consumption to surge at least 45% from 2025 levels by 2050
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[LONDON] Shell forecasts the long-term global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) to continue growing because of its flexibility and reliability, even as the conflict in the Middle East brings volatility to prices.
The company expects consumption for the fuel to surge at least 45 per cent by 2050 from 2025 levels, it said on Monday (Mar 16).
The report comes as global LNG markets have been upended by the war in the Middle East, with traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – a crucial transit for fuel shipments – reduced to a trickle.
While Shell did not comment on the impact from the conflict, it was reported that it has declared force majeure, a contractual clause that allows a company to interrupt shipments to some customers, due to the shutdown at the world’s largest export plant in Qatar.
The report, a variation of the company’s annual outlook, compiles industry analysis.
This year, Shell extended the range of its forecast by a decade to 2050. The oil and gas major said that the data in Monday’s report was accurate as at Mar 16, 2026, but any final LNG outlook could vary “due to the evolving conflict in the Middle East”.
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Shell bets that Asia will continue to be the main demand driver as it remains the centre of global economic growth, at least until 2050. While the European nations chase their net-zero targets, they will continue to need LNG as renewable roll-outs lag, the report said.
The anticipated increase in demand comes as the market is poised to be oversupplied. Still, the increased fuel availability will help lower global gas prices, which Shell expects will boost price-sensitive “latent demand”.
However, the timelines for some LNG projects remain uncertain because of costs, supply and labour issues, Shell said.
On Mar 9, it was reported that QatarEnergy is pushing back the start of a major LNG expansion project to at least 2027. BLOOMBERG
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