Sinopec forecasts China's coal consumption to peak around 2025

CHINA Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion tonnes, the state energy group said in an outlook released on Thursday (Dec 28).

Non-fossil energy supply, led by solar and wind, will likely exceed the equivalence of 3 billion tonnes of standard coal by 2045 to become the dominant energy source for more than half of primary energy consumption, Sinopec said in the 2060 outlook, which was released in Beijing.

Oil consumption is projected to peak around the middle of 2026-2030 at 800 million tonnes, or about 16 million barrels per day (bpd), partly due to faster-than-expected expansion in the new energy vehicle sector, Sinopec added.

China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, is estimated to use 760 million tonnes, or 15.2 million bpd of oil this year.

Sinopec also forecasts China’s demand for natural gas – a key bridge fuel before reaching carbon neutrality – to reach a plateau at around 2040 of 610 billion cubic metres (bcm) to account for 13 per cent of primary energy use. This compares with 425 bcm and 9 per cent of primary energy consumption projected for 2025.

China’s total carbon emissions from energy activities are expected to peak during the 15th five-year plan period at 10.1 billion tonnes, up from 10.02 billion tonnes in 2023. REUTERS