Sri Lanka surprises with interest-rate cut, signals rebound from crisis

IN A sign of confidence that the worst of Sri Lanka’s financial crisis is over, its central bank surprised markets by cutting interest rates for the first time in three years on Thursday (Jun 1), signalling a change of course to fuel a rebound in the economy.

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) cut its standing deposit facility rate and standing lending facility rate by 250 basis points – to 13 per cent and 14 per cent respectively, from 15.5 per cent and 16.5 per cent.

The South Asian island republic plunged into crisis last year as its foreign exchange reserves ran out, food and energy prices spiralled, and protesting mobs forced the ouster of the country’s president.

A new government took the reins in July, and negotiated a US$2.9 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in March. Inflation, which hit a record high of around 70 per cent in September, is coming down, government revenues are looking up and pressure on the country’s balance of payments is easing.

Price gains in Sri Lanka softened for a fourth month in May on record gains in the local currency and improving food and fuel supplies. The IMF programme has helped the South Asian nation start to emerge from its worst economic crisis since gaining independence in 1948.

Still, the nation’s continued recovery hinges closely on the government’s ability to restructure its debt in line with IMF criteria in order to keep unlocking funds under the programme. Sri Lanka is yet to set a date to announce its restructuring blueprint, which is needed to advance negotiations with creditors.

The government aims to complete talks to restructure its bilateral debt with other countries by September.

“This can possibly be seen as an end to the crisis,” said Sanjeewa Fernando, a senior vice-president at Asia Securities in Colombo.

The central bank said the big rate cut would “help steer the economy towards a rebound phase”.

SEE ALSO

Sri Lanka’s key inflation rate eases to 25.2% in May

IMF official says Sri Lanka reforms critical, evaluating progress

Governor P Nandalal Weerasinghe said the economy “was getting back to normalcy”. “Coming out of the crisis is gradual,” he told reporters.

“Cannot say yesterday, day before or tomorrow. It is a gradual recovery process.”

While inflation has come down, it remains steep, so most analysts had expected the bank to keep rates steady. The rates are now at their lowest level since March 2022, the start of the crisis.

The surprise decision was welcomed by markets, with the rupee rising to 288 against the dollar, its highest since April 2022 and the benchmark Colombo Stock Exchange index closing up 1.59 per cent, lifting away from five-month lows.

The rate cut comes after the key Colombo Consumer Price Index rose 25.2 per cent on year in May compared with 35.3 per cent in April, reducing some stress on the crisis-hit economy.

The index peaked at an annual 69.8 per cent surge in September last year. The national inflation rate was at 33.6 per cent in April, easing from 73.7 per cent in September.

Analysts said with the CBSL having successfully dealt with the runaway inflation, it was turning its attention to growth.

The central bank raised rates by a record 950 basis points last year to tame inflation and by 100 bps on Mar 3 this year.

The IMF expects GDP to contract 3 per cent this year, after a 7.8 per cent contraction last year. The CBSL has forecast a 2 per cent contraction in 2023, and Weerasinghe said the bank expects the economy to grow from the third quarter, after a small contraction in the second quarter.

“We hope the banks will gradually expand their loan books and credit will start flowing into businesses, and with that, the economy will start to recover,” he said.

Inflation is expected to moderate further, with Fernando at Asia Securities predicting a figure of 5 per cent by year-end. The IMF has set Sri Lanka an inflation target of 15.2 per cent for this year, but the CBSL is eyeing a more ambitious target of single-digit inflation by September, which was clearly within reach, Weerasinghe said.

“Headline inflation is forecast to reach single digit levels in early Q3 2023, and stabilise around mid-single digit levels over the medium term,” the bank said.

It said faster deceleration of inflation and the lower probability of demand pressure during the economic rebound “creates space for a gradual policy relaxation in the period ahead”.