Starmer’s UK rivals circle before make-or-break reset speech

PRIME Minister Keir Starmer’s political problems have likely grown too big to solve with a single speech. For now, he will try to forestall an immediate challenge to his job. 

Starmer will make a last-ditch effort to save his premiership on Monday morning with a politically charged address designed to hold back calls for a change in leadership atop Britain’s governing Labour Party.

Several would-be contenders are sitting on the sidelines, weighing whether to join a scramble for the prime minister’s job as soon as the premier stops talking. 

The speech in the wake of Labour’s sweeping defeat in local elections on Thursday, including a historic loss of control in the Welsh parliament, is easily the most consequential event of Starmer’s political career.

In it, he will lay out a plan to turn the governing party’s fortunes around, including a commitment to take the UK closer to the European Union a decade after the Brexit vote.

Starmer will vow to “face up to the big challenges” and concede that “incremental change won’t cut it,” according to a speech preview released by his office.

“On growth, defence, Europe, energy — we need a bigger response than we anticipated in 2024 because these are not ordinary times,” he will say. Starmer will argue his administration “will be defined by rebuilding our relationship” with the EU.

Starmer is being forced to embrace the bolder programme, which includes a focus on the cost of living and national security, after one-time Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage and his populist Reform UK racked up nationwide wins in last week’s elections.

The results confirmed for many in Labour that the party needs a change at the top before the next general election, which must be held by August 2029. 

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Over the weekend, Starmer saw his first direct challenge as Catherine West, a little-known member of Parliament from north London, announced she would seek the top Labour job if no one else stepped forward.

While few considered West a serious contender, her bid could force the hand of more Starmer rivals with deeper support, such as former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and Health Secretary Wes Streeting. 

Rayner, who has said little since the election results, laid out the stakes for Starmer in a statement on Sunday evening. Although she stopped short of declaring any intention to seek his job, her remarks included a broad enough critique of Labour policy to signal her desire to decide to shape its future.

“The prime minister must now meet the moment and set out the change our country needs,” Rayner said. “What we are doing isn’t working and it needs to change. This might be our last chance.”

Punters on the Polymarket prediction platform added to bets that Starmer would be forced to leave, giving a 66 per cent chance of the premier exiting by Dec 31, up from 48 per cent on Saturday afternoon.

The pound slipped against the dollar in Asia trading on Monday, dropping about 0.4 per cent to US$1.3583. The move mirrored peer currencies amid broader strength in the greenback.

Fiscal restraint

Starmer and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves have defined their agenda by their commitment to self-imposed fiscal rules meant to reassure investors they won’t borrow too much. Speculation that Britain might be about to install a new, more left-wing government has periodically prompted surges in gilt yields in recent months. 

On Saturday, Starmer announced that he was appointing former Prime Minister Gordon Brown to serve as a special envoy for global finance as part of his efforts to show he could tackle Britain’s political challenges.

He reaffirmed his desire in an interview in the Observer newspaper to lead Labour into the next election — and serve 10 years as prime minister.

Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, a Cabinet minister loyal to Starmer, told Sky News on Sunday that those considering a leadership challenge were “completely wrong.”

Still, Phillipson balked when asked to endorse Starmer’s claim that he’d lead the country for 10 years, pointing only to the party’s previous promise to oversee a “decade of renewal.”

West’s challenge to Starmer has increased the incentives for Streeting — a lead candidate from the right of the party — to step forward in the race to replace his boss.

The health secretary’s supporters spent the weekend urging him to stand for election, arguing that now was his best chance of winning, according to people familiar with the campaign. 

That’s because Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who has the support of many on the Labour left, is currently ineligible to become Labour leader since he doesn’t have a seat in Parliament. Streeting must make a move now before Burnham has a chance to secure a vacant seat in the House of Commons, one backer said.

Awkward alliance

Allies of Burnham, thus, found themselves in an awkward alliance with Starmer, willing to give the prime minister more time, if it gave their preferred replacement a better shot. That would require a Manchester-area MP to step down, and for Starmer’s allies on Labour’s National Executive Committee to allow Burnham to run, a chance they denied him earlier this year. 

Among those seeking to delay a challenge until Burnham could join were Energy Secretary Ed Miliband and former Transport Secretary Louise Haigh, both prominent spokespeople for Labour’s so-called soft left faction. They were aligned with more left-wing MPs, like former shadow chancellor John McDonnell, who want Starmer to set a timetable for his departure. 

Support on the left has appeared to shift to Burnham from Rayner in recent weeks, MPs and aides reported.

One said they didn’t think Rayner had enough support to make it onto a leadership ballot after figures like Miliband embraced calls for Starmer to plan an “orderly transition.” Such an extended time table would benefit Burnham, who is weeks, if not months, from joining Parliament in the best of scenarios. 

An ally of Rayner said she would not be the first to challenge Starmer and would only step forward if a contest was triggered. She spent the weekend speaking to Labour MPs though her team denied that she was canvassing support for a run.

In her statement on Sunday she said Burnham should be allowed to stand for Parliament, a remark viewed as opening the door to supporting him in the future.

That left some MPs urging Miliband to enter the fray if Streeting seeks the job. Miliband, a former Labour leader in opposition, has previously said he wasn’t interested in being prime minister after his unsuccessful general election campaign in 2015. 

West told the BBC on Sunday that she would watch Starmer’s speech and launch a bid for his job if he didn’t signal a sufficient change of direction. It was unclear what words the prime minister could use to turn back the threats against him. BLOOMBERG