Subdued US job growth expected in advance of Fed meeting
The report’s release on Oct 3 is at risk if lawmakers are unable to agree on a funding Bill
[WASHINGTON] US job growth probably lumbered along in September as the unemployment rate held at an almost four-year high, extending a sluggish period for the labour market.
Economists project 50,000 jobs were added, based on the median of a Bloomberg survey. That would be in line with the average from the past three months. The jobless rate is seen steady at 4.3 per cent.
The report’s release on Friday (Oct 3) is at risk if lawmakers are unable to agree on a funding Bill by the end of the fiscal year on Tuesday, and the government shuts down. A closure would see federal economic reports suspended.
Barring a shutdown, the report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will offer Federal Reserve policymakers an update on whether employers’ appetite for labour is enough to keep the unemployment rate from rising further.
Officials cut interest rates this month for the first time in 2025 on concerns about fragility in the job market, and investors are placing bigger bets on the Fed lowering borrowing costs again at a two-day meeting that concludes on Oct 29.
“Bloomberg Economics expects non-farm payrolls for September to add a net 54,000 jobs,” said Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Estelle Ou and Chris G Collins, economists at Bloomberg Economics. “The improvement in net hiring likely came from leisure and hospitality, as temperate weather and a positive wealth effect from the summer stock-market rally drove spending on discretionary services.”
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Fed officials Philip Jefferson, Susan Collins, Austan Goolsbee, Lorie Logan and John Williams are among the speakers in the coming week.
Labour demand has gradually diminished as companies search for ways to offset other costs, including higher import duties. A separate government report on Tuesday is projected to show August job openings were at one of the lowest levels since 2021.
Other data in the coming week include the Institute for Supply Management’s September surveys of manufacturers and service providers.
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Meanwhile, investors are watching for last-minute moves ahead of the potential Oct 1 federal shutdown, and for the impacts that a government closure would trigger. The top four congressional leaders will meet President Donald Trump at the White House on Monday, according to two people familiar with the matter.
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