Taiwan picks new leader in election closely watched by world

Taiwanese voters are heading to the polls in an election that will determine their island’s relationship with Washington and Beijing for years to come, and impact regional security.

The hotly contested race on Saturday (Jan 13) will see the ruling Democratic Progressive Party try to secure a record third term in power. Its candidate Lai Ching-te favours warmer ties with the US and has been branded a separatist by China.

A win for the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) would likely see the resumption of dialogue with Chinese President Xi Jinping’s government, which cut talks with the current administration eight years ago. The KMT’s Hou Yu-ih has ruled out unification discussions with Beijing, which claims Taiwan as its own.

The Taiwan People’s Party is running its first presidential campaign fielding the outspoken Ko Wen-je, who is popular with younger and more educated voters.

Ballots will be cast between 8 am and 4 pm with the result likely known by early evening, according to past precedent.

The Chinese Communist Party has ramped up its efforts to intimidate President Tsai Ing-wen’s government during her current term. Most notably by conducting major military drills around the island twice in retaliation for her meeting with top American lawmakers. 

GET BT IN YOUR INBOX DAILY

Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox.

Sign UpVIEW ALL

The US is Taiwan’s main military backer, and President Joe Biden has repeatedly said his nation would defend Taiwan in case of attack by Beijing.

The two superpowers’ diverging views on Taiwan’s status presents a major test of a recent stabilisation of their ties after years of difficulties over trade, technology, human rights and more. Beijing and Washington have engaged in a flurry of diplomatic activity recently that’s included resuming high-level military talks.

Security officials in Taiwan have said they don’t expect the People’s Liberation Army to carry out large military drills around the island right after the election, even if Lai wins. They do see Beijing ramping up economic pressure and taking other coercive measures before the new president takes office in May no matter which candidate triumphs in Saturday’s election.

While the relationship with China is the dominant issue in the race to be Taiwan’s fifth democratically elected leader, voters have other concerns, too.

Home prices and the economy are also front of mind. Properties in the capital, Taipei City, are some of the least affordable in the world when compared to incomes, and low wage growth has been a severe problem since the turn of the millennium.

That’s been exacerbated by rising consumer prices in recent years, wiping out hard-won increases in wages.

The vote will also have an impact on markets. Analysts say it will most likely be a slow burn rather than immediate volatility, with a lot hinging on the victor’s proclamations and Beijing’s corresponding response. BLOOMBERG