Thai business group sees GDP growth at 2.8% this year, risks ahead

THAILAND’S economy is expected to grow 2.8 per cent this year, the top end of a previous forecast range of 2.6 per cent to 2.8 per cent, helped by stronger exports and government spending, a leading joint business group said on Wednesday (Dec 4).

Exports, a key driver of growth, are now projected to rise 4 per cent this year, up from a range of 2.5 per cent to 2.9 per cent growth seen previously, said the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking, which includes representatives from those sectors.

The baht at around 34 per dollar is supporting shipments, Sanan Angubolkul, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, told a press conference.

The damage from floods in parts of the country this year is expected at up to US$2.5 billion, or 0.6 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), Sanan said.

However, the economy would grow 4 per cent annually in the final quarter of this year and expand further next year, he said.

“There is still a risk for the economy in 2025. No matter what, there will be a trade war,” Sanan said.

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The group will offer 2025 GDP growth outlook in January. The finance ministry has forecast growth of 3 per cent for 2025.

Thailand’s economy grew 3 per cent annually in the July-September quarter of 2024, the fastest pace in two years, but officials and analysts see increased challenges to maintaining the momentum next year.

South-east Asia’s second-largest expanded just 1.9 per cent in 2023, lagging regional peers. It has struggled under high household debt and borrowing costs, as well as sluggish demand from major trading partner China. REUTERS