Thai exports beat forecast in February but US trade uncertainty clouds outlook
Thailand is trying to import more from the US to reduce its bilateral trade surplus
[BANGKOK] Thailand’s exports rose for an eighth consecutive month in February and more than expected, the commerce ministry said on Friday (Mar 21), although uncertainty over US trade policy is clouding the outlook for the remainder of the year.
Exports, a key driver of South-east Asia’s second-largest economy, jumped 14.0 per cent in February from a year earlier, above a forecast rise of 9.7 per cent in a Reuters poll and following January’s 13.6 per cent increase.
“Exports were very good, we are satisfied,” Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan told a briefing, saying exports could grow an annual 10 per cent over the first quarter.
“Trade and investment are flowing in and free trade negotiations will help boost exports,” Pichai added.
In 2024, Thai exports rose 5.4 per cent to a record US$301 billion. The ministry has forecast a rise of 2 per cent to 3 per cent this year.
“It’s possible that exports will be higher than 3 per cent. Agricultural products will return to positive in the next quarter,” said Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, head of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, adding there was no impact from US trade policy on Thai exports in the first two months of this year, which increased 13.8 per cent year-on-year.
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Still, the ministry said the overall global trade situation requires close monitoring. Thailand is trying to import more from the US to reduce its bilateral trade surplus, which was US$35.4 billion last year. Thailand has discussed the issue with the private sector and wants to talk trade with US officials, said Vuttikrai Leewiraphan, the ministry’s permanent secretary.
“We’re waiting for them to respond,” he said. “The negotiation guidelines are all ready, whether it is about products or various matters to be negotiated, whether it is about overall trade and investment and security issues. It will be in a package”. Minister Pichai has previously said he hoped Thailand would not face US tariffs, amid concerns the trade surplus with Washington could become an issue.
In February, exports to the United States, Thailand’s biggest market, rose 18.3 per cent from a year earlier, while shipments to China increased 22.4 per cent.
Rice export volumes dropped by an annual 33.1 per cent in February. Thailand, the world’s second-largest rice exporter after India, is expected to ship 7.5 million tons this year, down from 9.95 million tons in 2024, following India’s resumption of rice exports, according to the commerce ministry.
In February, imports rose 4 per cent from a year earlier, lower than a forecast rise of 4.8 per cent, leading to a trade surplus of US$2 billion for the month that was bigger than the forecast surplus of US$0.7 billion. REUTERS
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