Thai exports beat forecast in July but growth to slow due to tariffs
Export growth is expected at 2% to 3% for the year
[BANGKOK] Thailand’s export growth slowed in July but beat forecasts as shipments accelerated ahead of US tariffs, but growth is set to slow over the rest of the year after those tariffs took effect, the commerce ministry said on Monday (Aug 25).
Customs-cleared exports rose 11 per cent in July from a year earlier, the ministry said, beating a forecast 9.6 per cent year-on-year increase in a Reuters poll, but down from a rise of 15.5 per cent in June.
In the first seven months of 2025, exports, a key driver of the economy, rose 14.4 per cent from a year earlier. The ministry is maintaining its forecast for export growth of 2 per cent to 3 per cent for the year, although there is a chance that it will be higher thanks to the strong start.
Exports are expected to slow in the remaining five months of the year after importers made their purchases earlier to mitigate the impact of US tariffs, Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, head of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, told a press conference.
“Achieving double-digit export growth for the year is unlikely,” he said.
In July, exports to the United States, Thailand’s largest market, jumped 31.4 per cent from a year earlier, while shipments to China rose 23.1 per cent, ministry data showed.
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The US set a 19 per cent tariff on imported goods from Thailand, lower than the 36 per cent rate announced earlier and in line with other countries in the region.
There are still uncertainties relating to US tariffs on transshipments via Thailand from third countries.
The United States was Thailand’s largest export market last year, accounting for 18.3 per cent of total shipments, valued at US$55 billion.
In July, imports rose 5.1 per cent in July from a year earlier, higher than a forecast rise of 4.90 per cent.
That led to a trade surplus of US$0.32 billion in July, higher than the expected US$0.5 billion deficit. REUTERS
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