Thai exports return to growth in April, beat forecast

THAILAND’S exports returned to growth in April, and at a much faster pace than analysts’ expectations, and the commerce ministry said on Thursday (May 23) shipments were expected to eke out a small gain in the second quarter.

Customs-based exports rose 6.8 per cent in April from a year earlier, beating a forecast for a 0.35 per cent increase in a Reuters poll, and compared with March’s 10.9 per cent decline.

Exports, a key driver of South-east Asia’s second-largest economy, dropped 6.7 per cent from March, however.

Exports this year will continue to grow well due to increased demand for industrial goods, which aligns with the global economic recovery and easing inflation, while volatile weather conditions will drive up agricultural prices, the commerce ministry said in a statement.

“We expect exports to rise by 0.8 per cent to 1 per cent in the second quarter,” Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, head of the ministry’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office, told a press conference.

Chaichan Chareonsuk, chairman of the Thai National Shippers’ Council, noted the export momentum, but said “geopolitical problems pose high risks”.

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In the first four months of 2024, exports rose 1.4 per cent from a year earlier. The ministry is maintaining its export growth target of 1 per cent to 2 per cent this year, after a fall of 1 per cent in 2023.

In April, exports of industrial goods increased 9.2 per cent year-on-year, while rice export volumes jumped 64.2 per cent to 933,559 metric tons and value surged 92 per cent.

Thailand, the world’s second-largest shipper of the grain after India, expects rice exports to exceed a target of 7.5 million metric tons this year.

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In April, shipments to the United States rose 26.1 per cent year-on-year, while exports to China dropped 7.8 per cent and Japan fell 4.1 per cent.

April imports rose 8.3 per cent from a year earlier, against an increase of 5.05 per cent forecast in the poll.

This led to a trade deficit of US$1.64 billion for the month, compared with a forecast deficit of US$1.7 billion. REUTERS