Thai exports rise in August, commerce ministry says will meet 2024 forecast

THAILAND’S exports rose for a second straight month in August, the commerce ministry said on Wednesday (Sep 25), as it maintained its forecast of 1 per cent to 2 per cent growth this year despite the baht strengthening to 30-month highs against the US dollar.

With demand picking up in key markets, further export growth was expected this year, and it could even come in above the forecast, although the baht’s rise would impact Q4 shipments, said Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, head of the ministry’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office.

Exports, a key driver of South-east Asia’s second-largest economy, rose 7 per cent in August from a year earlier, and followed July’s 15.2 per cent rise. This was the fastest growth in 28 months. Economists in a Reuters poll had expected a rise of 5.8 per cent.

Imports rose 8.9 per cent in August from a year earlier, compared with a forecast rise of 7.3 per cent in the poll.

That led to a trade surplus of about US$260 million in August, compared with a predicted deficit of US$70 million.

In the first eight months of 2024, exports rose 4.2 per cent from a year earlier. Imports rose 5.2 per cent, which brings the country’s cumulative trade deficit to about US$6.4 billion.

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The baht has risen 4.6 per cent since the beginning of the year, with large gains seen in the past month, to be the region’s second-strongest performing currency after Malaysia’s ringgit.

“The stronger baht is impacting liquidity and profits, especially for agricultural goods,” said Chaichan Chareonsuk, chairman of the Thai National Shippers’ Council.

“Some business could take a loss when negotiating new orders or not get orders,” he said.

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The finance ministry and central bank are due to meet next week to discuss currency appreciation and the inflation target.

The Bank of Thailand said it was closely monitoring the currency, and was ready to reduce volatility.

For August, shipments to the US rose 3 per cent from a year earlier, and exports to China was up 6.7 per cent. However, those to Japan were down 11.3 per cent.

Last month, rice exports rose 39.5 per cent from a year earlier to 885,387 tonnes, and were up 46.6 per cent in value terms to US$562 million. REUTERS