Thai growth forecasts may need to be revised down: central bank chief
THAILAND’S economy continues to recover, helped by tourism and consumption, though the growth forecast may need to be revised down with exports weak this year, the central bank chief said on Wednesday (Aug 9).
Inflation was falling faster than expected and interest rate decisions would focus on the economic outlook, not short-term data, Bank of Thailand (BOT) governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput told a central bank seminar.
Thailand’s economy, South-east Asia’s second-largest, expanded by 2.6 per cent in 2022. In May, the BOT maintained its forecast for economic growth at 3.6 per cent this year, and 3.8 per cent for 2024.
“Due to a slowdown, this number will probably need to be adjusted down to the mid-3 per cent range this year,” Sethaput said.
The economy expanded by a more-than-expected 2.7 per cent in the first quarter from a year earlier as the vital tourism sector gathered strength.
On Jul 26, the finance ministry trimmed its 2023 economic growth forecast to 3.5 per cent from 3.6 per cent, lowering its projections for exports and foreign tourist spending.
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“Exports have been soft due to global issues,” Sethaput said, adding private consumption and tourism would support continued recovery and that the country expects 29 million foreign arrivals this year.
Pre-pandemic 2019 saw a record of nearly 40 million foreign tourists who spent 1.91 trillion baht (S$73.5 billion).
Thailand received 15.32 million foreign tourist arrivals from January to July.
The central bank last week raised key interest rate for the seventh straight meeting to 2.25 per cent.
Sethaput on Wednesday said the next monetary policy review may hold or raise rates. REUTERS
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