Thai headline CPI below forecast in November, seen slowing further

THAILAND’S headline consumer price index (CPI) rose by a less-than-expected 5.55 per cent in November from a year earlier, the slowest pace in seven months, helped by lower food prices, government data showed on Wednesday (Dec 7).

The index, which slowed for a third straight month, compared with a forecast for a 5.86 per cent rise in November in a Reuters poll and followed October’s 5.98 per cent increase.

The pace, however, is still far above the central bank’s target range of 1 per cent to 3 per cent, reinforcing expectations that the central bank will continue to gradually raise interest rates to bring prices back within target.

The headline CPI in December is expected to rise at a similar pace to the November reading, senior commerce ministry official Poonpong Naiyanapakorn told a briefing.

Average headline inflation is still expected at 5.5 per cent to 6.5 per cent for the whole of 2022 and should fall to 2 per cent to 3 per cent in 2023 due to a base effect and a global recession risk, he said.

The core CPI index in November was up 3.22 per cent from a year ago, versus a forecast rise of 3.20 per cent, and following October’s 3.17 per cent, the ministry said. REUTERS