Thai October export growth highest in more than a year but misses forecast

THAILAND’S exports in October rose at the fastest annual pace in more than a year but less than expected, and the commerce ministry said on Monday (Nov 27) that full-year exports would still show a small contraction.

Customs-based exports, a key driver of Thailand’s economy, climbed 8.0 per cent in October from a year earlier, the fastest since June 2022, compared with a forecast rise of 9.3 per cent on-year in a Reuters poll.

“The growth was supported by the gradual recovery of demand during the year-end festive season,” the ministry said in a statement, adding China’s economic stimulus measures were also supportive.

The export gains were helped by higher shipments of agricultural products and industrial goods, the ministry said.

The ministry anticipated that the export momentum to continue into next year, Keerati Rushchano, the ministry’s permanent secretary, told a briefing.

“We expect exports in the remaining two months of this year and next year to remain in a better direction ... as the global economy is improving,” he said.

Exports, however, are expected to contract 1 per cent this year before rising 2 per cent next year, Keerati said. Exports declined 2.7 per cent year-on-year in the first 10 months of 2023.

Chaichan Chareonsuk, chairman of the Thai National Shippers’ Council, said he forecast exports would rise 7 per cent on-year in the final quarter of 2023 but fall 1 per cent for the full year.

In October, exports of agricultural products rose 12.3 per cent year-on-year, while industrial goods shipments rose 5.4 per cent. Rice export volumes rose 5.6 per cent year-on-year, with export value up 38 per cent.

SEE ALSO

Thai economy in ‘crisis’ and needs major stimulus: PM

Thai Q3 GDP growth disappoints, missing forecasts amid weak exports

Exports to the United States increased 13.8 per cent year-on-year in October, while shipments to South-east Asian countries climbed 4.5 per cent. Exports to Japan fell 1.1 per cent on-year and shipments to China rose 3.4 per cent.

In October, Thailand posted a trade deficit of US$0.83 billion, compared with a forecast surplus of US$0.53 billion, while imports rose 10.2 per cent from a year earlier.

In the January-October period, imports dropped 4.6 per cent year-on-year and the trade deficit stood at $6.67 billion.