Thai Reformist Party chief holds his lead in latest opinion poll

[BANGKOK] The head of Thailand’s reformist People’s Party maintained his lead as the preferred candidate in next month’s general election, according to the latest opinion poll, with voters appearing to grow more decisive as the race to lead the next government heats up. 

Support for Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, leader of the People’s Party, rose to 24.76 per cent from 17.2 per cent last month, a Jan 5-8 survey by the National Institute of Development Administration showed.

Incumbent Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul of the conservative Bhumjaithai Party followed, with the backing of 20.84 per cent of respondents, up from 12.32 per cent. 

The percentage of respondents who are indecisive about which candidate to support has shrunk from 40.6 per cent last month to 14.12 per cent. Support increased for most of the candidates as voter interest increases closer to the Feb 8 election. 

The Democrat Party’s Abhisit Vejjajiva, a former prime minister, had the third-highest support, with 12.12 per cent. Yodchanan Wongsawat, nephew of ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra and the latest family member to front the Pheu Thai Party campaign, had the backing of 9.64 per cent of respondents.

Anutin, who has only been in power for four months, dissolved parliament last month to prevent his minority government from being toppled in a no-confidence vote threatened by Natthaphong’s party, triggering the snap election.

The People’s Party is the successor to a previous political grouping that won the 2023 general election, only to be blocked from power and later dissolved over its campaign to amend Thailand’s royal defamation law. 

Anutin’s Bhumjaithai Party trails the People’s Party, which led the latest survey with the backing of about 30 per cent of respondents, even though Bhumjaithai held the incumbency advantage heading into the polls. The ruling party did narrow the gap, receiving about 22 per cent of support – more than double what it got last month.

Pheu Thai was the choice of around 15 per cent of respondents and the Democrat Party won the backing of about 12 per cent. 

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The top parties will seek to win with large enough margins in the upcoming election to lead what looks set to be a coalition government and end a sequence of short-lived administrations since the last election in 2023. 

The survey reflected the opinions of 2,500 Thais aged 18 and above across the nation, according to the institute. BLOOMBERG