Thailand raises 2026 growth forecast after June exports beat expectations
Shipments to the US, its largest export market, surge 44.3%
Add BT as a preferred source
[BANGKOK] Thailand’s finance ministry said on Friday (Jul 24) that it has raised its 2026 economic growth forecast to 2.5 per cent from the previous 1.6 per cent, citing stronger foreign trade, investment and consumption as well as the impact of government stimulus measures, with June exports growing faster than expected.
Private investment is forecast to expand 9 per cent this year while private consumption is expected to rise 2.7 per cent, Vinit Visessuvanapoom, head of the finance ministry’s fiscal policy office, told a press briefing.
South-east Asia’s second-largest economy grew 2.4 per cent last year.
Foreign tourist arrivals are expected to reach 33 million this year, down from 33.5 million seen earlier, Vinit said. Thailand had a record of nearly 40 million foreign visitors in 2019, before the pandemic.
The ministry now expects exports to grow 12.5 per cent in 2026, up from a previous forecast of 6.2 per cent, supported by stronger demand from major trading partners, he said.
Customs-cleared exports rose 20.8 per cent in June from a year earlier, commerce ministry data showed on Friday, beating a Reuters poll forecast of a 16.85 per cent increase.
Exports, a key driver of the Thai economy, rose 17.6 per cent in the first half of 2026, after increasing 12.9 per cent in 2025, the ministry said.
The impact of a new 12.5 per cent US tariff on Thai exports should be limited, said Nantapong Chiralerspong, head of the ministry’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office.
Electronic products, which account for more than 50 per cent of Thailand’s outbound shipments, are exempt and should continue to support export growth, he told a briefing.
The commerce ministry has maintained its forecast for export growth at 8 per cent this year, he said.
The pace of exports may slow in H2 following earlier front-loading, he added.
In June, shipments to the US, Thailand’s largest export market, surged 44.3 per cent, while exports to China rose 4.9 per cent, the commerce ministry said.
Imports jumped 50.3 per cent in June, exceeding a forecast increase of 37.1 per cent, resulting in a US$6.5 billion trade deficit, the ministry said, wider than the expected US$4 billion deficit. REUTERS
Decoding Asia newsletter: your guide to navigating Asia in a new global order. Sign up here to get Decoding Asia newsletter. Delivered to your inbox. Free.
Share with us your feedback on BT's products and services
