Thailand’s opposition party widens lead ahead of tight election race

[BANGKOK] People’s Party has extended its lead over Thailand’s ruling Bhumjaithai Party with just nine days to go before an election that’s likely to produce another divided parliament.

Support for the opposition party rose to 34.2 per cent from 30.5 per cent earlier this month, according to a Jan 23-25 survey by the National Institute of Development Administration. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s conservative Bhumjaithai Party trailed with 22.6 per cent, little changed from 22.3 per cent, the survey published Friday showed. 

The Feb 8 election is essentially a race between reformist People’s Party, whose predecessor won the last election but was blocked from forming a government, and its conservative rival that’s seen as having the backing of the royalist-military establishment. No party is expected to win a majority, making coalition bargaining inevitable in a system that has struggled to produce stable governments since the 2023 election.

Pheu Thai, backed by former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, is polling third at about 16.2 per cent, positioning it as a potential kingmaker, while the country’s oldest political bloc, Democrat Party, follows with 13.2 per cent. 

The poll of 2,500 voters nationwide also showed People’s Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut as the most preferred prime minister candidate, with 29.1 per cent support, ahead of Anutin’s 22.2 per cent. The share of undecided voters has shrunk, suggesting opinions are solidifying as election day approaches. 

A separate survey by Suan Dusit University echoed the trend, putting People’s Party on 36% support among more than 26,000 respondents. However, the poll showed Pheu Thai in second place and Bhumjaithai coming in third. BLOOMBERG