Total merchandise trade dips amid crude oil glut

Singapore

SINGAPORE'S total merchandise trade took a steeper dive in the first three months of the year, as the crude oil glut continued to grow.

Figures from International Enterprise (IE) Singapore indicated that total merchandise trade tumbled 10.5 per cent to S$220.05 billion in Q1, extending the 4.8 per cent drop in the preceding quarter.

But its key non-oil domestic exports (NODX) picked up strongly, hitting a nearly-three-year quarterly high, figures released on Tuesday by the trade promotion agency showed.

With the global economy tipped to put on a modest showing in the year ahead - and the oil market continuing to be depressed - IE Singapore said it is maintaining its 2015 forecasts of 1.0 to 3.0 per cent growth for NODX, and a 5.0 to 7.0 drop in total trade.

It said in a report: "Total merchandise trade's year-on-year decline in the first quarter can be attributed to the decrease in oil trade, which outweighed the increase in non-oil trade."

Oil trade plunged 40.4 per cent, following a 18.9 per cent fall in the final three months of 2014. Non-oil trade rose 1.9 per cent in the first quarter, against a 0.4 per cent rise in the previous quarter.

Total merchandise trade slipped by a seasonally-adjusted 3.8 per cent over the last quarter, compared to the previous quarter's 2.7 per cent dip.

The NODX posted a 4.8 per cent year-on-year jump in January-March this year, after a 0.5 per cent rise in the last quarter of 2014 - thanks to stronger shipments in both the electronic and non-electronic NODX.

After a 4.5 per cent drop, the electronic NODX, which accounted for 27.3 per cent of total NODX in the first quarter, recovered to grow 1.2 per cent, driven by exports of integrated circuits, personal computers, diodes and transistors, said IE Singapore.

Non-electronic NODX made up the remaining 72.7 per cent of NODX. It was up 6.3 per cent in January-March, exceeding the previous quarter's 2.8 per cent growth.

IE Singapore said the increase in non-electronic NODX was due to higher domestic exports of pharmaceuticals, structures of ships and boats and non-electric engines and motors.

The European Union, the United States and South Korea were the biggest contributors to the NODX's increase in the first quarter. Shipments to the EU surged 22.2 per cent, against a 2.2 per cent fall in the previous quarter. NODX exports to Indonesia, China, Japan and Taiwan declined in the first three months of the year.

Non-oil exports (NOX), which includes the NODX and non-oil re-exports (NORX), went up 5.0 per cent, after a 1.3 per cent hike in the October-December quarter. Quarter on quarter, the NOX rose a seasonally-adjusted 2.9 per cent, about the same as in the previous quarter.

The NORX followed up a 1.8 per cent increase in October-December with a 5.2 per cent jump in the subsequent quarter. The electronic NORX posted growth of 8.8 per cent, and the non-electronic NORX, 1.3 per cent.

Against the previous quarter, the NORX rose a seasonally-adjusted 3.1 per cent in the first quarter, easing from a 5.8 per cent increase.

Oil domestic shipments tumbled 34.7 per cent on-year, deepening the 17.7 per cent drop in the previous quarter. Oil re-exports plunged 42.6 per cent, against a 34.0 per cent fall.

IE Singapore's figures showed that total services trade rose 1.2 per cent in the first quarter, after a 0.3 per cent dip in the fourth quarter of last year. Total services trade amounted to S$90.2 billion in the first quarter.

Services exports were up 2.1 per cent, extending the 0.8 per cent rise in the previous quarter. IE Singapore said the increase was due to the growth in financial and "other" services, as well as transport.

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