Tough-talking Thai PM Anutin brings border conflict with Cambodia to the brink
The brinkmanship from both sides of the border remains highly risky, with a similarly swift repeat of July’s face-saving diplomatic off-ramp far from guaranteed
[BANGKOK] As fighting raged for a second day along the contested Thai-Cambodian border, the complexion of the reignited conflict rested on how much store should be put by the heightened rhetoric from Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul.
If it is taken at face value, Anutin and his army chiefs have set an express target of asserting Thailand’s overwhelming military superiority by incapacitating Cambodia’s military installations along the border. This will neutralise what Thailand says is the enduring threat of repeated incursions for a long time to come.
“From now on, there will be no negotiations of any kind,” Anutin said on Dec 8. “If the fighting is to stop, Cambodia must follow the course of action set by Thailand.”
The fluidity of the situation on the ground, however, was underscored by Anutin denying a Malaysian media report late on Dec 9 that said Thailand had agreed to a ceasefire with Cambodia, brokered by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. That report, which cited Datuk Seri Anwar’s remarks from a local TV interview, was taken down about an hour after it appeared on the media outlet’s website.
“Thailand’s direction remains status quo. No ceasefire,” Anutin said in a terse statement on his official Facebook page later on Dec 9. And Thailand’s Foreign Ministry said “the Thai side has not agreed to any proposal made by the Prime Minister of Malaysia regarding a ceasefire”.
The prevailing view is that Anutin’s assertive posture is in no small part informed by a need to be seen as being tough and exacting over the national interest ahead of the Thai general election, expected to be called early in 2026.
His fledgling government’s standing – after an initial honeymoon period in office – has taken a beating over perceived high-level links to scam syndicates headquartered in Cambodia and anger at a slow response to floods that have devastated Thailand’s southern provinces.
The question is to what extent the conservative, pro-military Anutin is engaging in performative political theatre, versus a genuine desire to maximally capitalise on the fervent nationalism coursing through the country.
“It’s very serious, I think he means what he says. His posture is no-nonsense (and) tough-talking, but he means it,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political science professor at Chulalongkorn University.
“There’s an election coming up (in Thailand). There’s an incentive for him to benefit from nationalism at home.”
Tita Sanglee, an associate fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, said such is Thailand’s long and complex history with Cambodia that there was a prevalent mood of frustration within the Land of Smiles. The view among the Thai public is that, despite its relative economic power and far stronger military, Thailand has not been able to effectively deter Cambodia from border incursions and perceived interference in Thai politics.
“From the Thai perspective, if you don’t deal with Cambodia now, then the issue will flare up anyway,” she said. “So there’s this perception that you have to deal with it once.”
But Sanglee said much of the tough talk is probably bluster, with Anutin likely banking on international pressure and diplomatic intervention providing a chance to de-escalate before things get too out of hand, similar to how the ceasefire was reached after five days of fighting in July.
“Certainly, he wants to be, in practical terms, more tough than the previous government, because he has always been aligned with the military,” Sanglee said.
“We should probably expect to see Thailand try to make as much strategic gain as possible on the ground before another ceasefire.”
On Dec 9, however, fighting between the two South-east Asian neighbours expanded across multiple fronts, with neither side showing any intention of backing down.
Thai military officials said there were clashes in five border provinces. Meanwhile, a navy marines operation in Trat to reclaim a border area seized by opposition forces meant Chanthaburi was the only Thai province bordering Cambodia not involved in active combat.
Cambodia’s Defence Ministry said nine civilians had been killed, and 20 injured, since the resumption of hostilities, while the Thai military said two more soldiers were killed in battle on Dec 9, bringing the total to three.
Cambodia’s influential former leader Hun Sen said that his country had begun retaliating against Thai attacks on Dec 9, after Phnom Penh had initially denied returning fire. He said Cambodian forces were concentrating on disrupting Thai advances through counter-attacks.
Hun Sen had been Cambodia’s long-serving prime minister until he handed power over to his son Hun Manet in 2023, and he is currently president of the Cambodian Senate.
“After being patient for more than 24 hours in order to respect the ceasefire and to allow time to evacuate people to safety, yesterday evening we retaliated with more responses last night and this morning,” he said in a Facebook post on Dec 9.
The comments are consistent with Cambodia’s long-held strategy, analysts say, of playing up the asymmetry of military power to cast Thailand as the bullying bigger neighbour. At the same time, Cambodia is also hyping up nationalism and playing the role of a tenacious underdog before its domestic audience.
Part of the gambit is Cambodia’s calculations that Thailand’s military response would be restrained by pressure from the international community.
If Thailand does take the bait and overreaches, then it could aid the case Phnom Penh is pursuing at the International Court of Justice adjudicating on its border disputes with Thailand.
Hun Sen, still widely regarded as his country’s de facto leader, has already put paid to the political ambitions of Thailand’s erstwhile most powerful political family, led by patriarch Thaksin Shinawatra. His daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra was ousted as prime minister over a leaked phone call between her and Hun Sen regarding the border conflict in July. That paved the way for Anutin to take office in September.
“Cambodia understands the domestic political structure in Thailand very well, and also the Cambodian leadership knows that Thailand cannot really escalate to an all-out war,” Sanglee said.
The brinkmanship from both sides of the border remains highly risky, with a similarly swift repeat of July’s face-saving diplomatic off-ramp far from guaranteed.
China is preoccupied with its diplomatic stand-off with Japan over Taiwan, while an unpredictable Trump White House also has its hands full with purportedly ending wars in Ukraine and Gaza but also potentially starting one in Venezuela. THE STRAITS TIMES
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