UN urges the world to be ready for extreme heat risk from El Nino

[GENEVA] The United Nations weather agency forecast on Tuesday (Jun 2) a moderate or possibly strong El Nino that could drive up global temperatures, and increase the risk of extreme weather over the coming months.

El Nino is a periodic warming of sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which also noted that the phenomenon typically lasts between nine and 12 months.

The WMO said that warm ocean waters were driving El Nino’s development, and it predicted above-average temperatures in most parts of the world from June to August.

The agency said that El Nino will likely continue until November.

It also said it remained uncertain on the extent of the strength of El Nino, as models differ on its severity.

More droughts, hurricanes and heat?

Officials, however, have warned of the need to be ready.

WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo said: “We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Nino event, which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean.”

The weather pattern is ​known to disrupt regional climates, potentially bringing warmer temperatures across the globe, while increasing ​rainfall ⁠in the southern parts of South America and the US, parts of the Horn of Africa and central Asia.

El Nino can also cause a drought ⁠in ​Australia, Central America, Indonesia and parts of South ​Asia, as well as spur hurricane formation in the central and eastern Pacific, the ​WMO said.

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The last El Nino, which meteorologists said was strong, occurred in 2023 to 2024. It contributed to making 2024 the hottest year on record, Saulo said.

She noted that other risks associated with extreme heat included a wider spread of diseases borne by vectors, such as mosquitoes and ticks, in addition to reduced food and water supplies.

“Communities that were already struggling will be pushed farther beyond their limits,” she added.

For consumers facing inflation because of the Iran war, food prices may rise further because of El Nino.

Hein Schumacher, CEO of Barry Callebaut, one of the world’s biggest cocoa processors, warned that crops in the growing regions of Ecuador and West Africa that account for 60 per cent of global output could be reduced.

“This is something that we are very cautiously observing,” he said on Tuesday. “El Nino could have an effect that could lead to, you know, a few thousands per tonne.”

London cocoa futures are trading at £2,944 (S$5,070) a tonne, down from more than £9,000 in April 2024.

Strongest El Nino in a decade

Some national weather agencies have forecast the strongest El Nino in a decade.

The WMO is more circumspect, but said that it had observed unusually warm sub-surface conditions across the tropical Pacific.

It added that temperatures have been exceeding 6 deg C above average, creating a reservoir of heat that is driving surface warming.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said it was a reminder of the need for a shift away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy.

“The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” he said. REUTERS