Unemployment claims rose slightly last week

[WASHINGTON] A year after they first rocketed upward, jobless claims may finally be returning to earth.

More than 714,000 people filed for state unemployment benefits last week, the Labor Department said Thursday. That was up modestly from the week before, but still among the lowest weekly totals since the pandemic began.

In addition, 237,000 people filed for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, a federal program that covers people who do not qualify for state benefits programmes. That number, too, has been falling.

Jobless claims remain high by historical standards and are far above the norm before the pandemic, when around 200,000 people a week were filing for benefits. Applications have improved only gradually - even after the recent declines, the weekly figure is modestly below where it was last fall.

But economists are optimistic that further improvement is ahead as the vaccine rollout accelerates and more states lift restrictions on business activity. Fewer companies are laying off workers, and hiring has picked up, meaning that people who lose their jobs are more likely to find new ones quickly.

"We could actually finally see the jobless claims numbers come down because there's enough job creation to offset the layoffs," said Julia Pollak, a labour economist at the job site ZipRecruiter.

But Ms Pollak cautioned that benefits applications would not return to normal overnight. Even as many companies resume normal operations, others are discovering that the pandemic has permanently disrupted their business model.

"There are still a lot of business closures and a lot of layoffs that have yet to happen," she said. "The repercussions of this pandemic are still rippling through this economy."

NYTimes