US business activity moderates in April

[WASHINGTON] US business activity slowed to a 16-month low in April and prices charged for goods and services soared amid uncertainty caused by tariffs, reinforcing financial market fears of stagflation that could put the Federal Reserve in a tough spot.

The survey from S&P Global on Wednesday (Apr 23) also showed President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policy, which has boosted the United States’ average effective tariff rate to levels not seen in more than a century, and an immigration crackdown were hurting goods exports and tourism.

Businesses were also reluctant to hire, which S&P Global said was blamed on “concerns over the economic outlook and demand environments both at home and in export markets, with rising cost concerns and labor availability.” Confidence about business conditions over the next 12 months also deteriorated.

S&P Global’s flash US Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, dropped to 51.2 this month. That was the lowest level since December 2023 and followed a reading of 53.5 in March. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the private sector.

The survey was conducted between April 9-22, well after Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement and subsequent 90-day delay of reciprocal duties on more than 50 trade partners. Trump, however, raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 145 per cent.

Beijing retaliated with duties of its own, unleashing a trade war between the two economic giants. A 10 per cent universal tariff on nearly all trading partners remains in effect as do 25 per cent duties on automobiles, steel and aluminium.

The tariffs, which Trump sees as a tool to raise revenue to offset his promised tax cuts and to revive a long-declining US industrial base, have stoked fears of high inflation and stagnation in economic growth.

That has partly resulted in investors dumping US assets.

The pullback in the Composite PMI suggested that economic activity was tepid at the start of the second quarter.

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Economists believe economic growth braked sharply in the first quarter, with gross domestic product estimates converging below a 0.5 per cent annualised rate.

The government is scheduled to publish its advance GDP estimate for the January-March quarter next Wednesday, which will coincide with Trump’s 100 days in office. The economy grew at a 2.4 per cent pace in the fourth quarter.

“Output rose in April at its slowest pace since December 2023, indicating that the US economy is growing at a modest annualised rate of just 1.0 per cent,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell last week suggested the Fed was in no rush to move on interest rates, but cautioned Trump’s tariff policies risked pushing inflation and employment further from the US central bank’s goals. The Fed’s benchmark overnight interest rate is currently in the 4.25 per cent-4.50 per cent range.

The S&P Global survey’s business confidence measure was the lowest since July 2022. Its measure of new orders received by businesses slipped to 52.5 from 53.3 in March, hampered “by a fall in exports of services, which include tourism-related activities as well as cross-border activities by service providers on a scale not seen since January 2023.”

Manufacturing orders ticked up, but that was offset by declining exports, also attributed to trade policy. Prices charged by businesses for goods and services increased to a 13-month high of 55.2 from 53.5 in March, driven mostly by manufacturers.

“These higher prices will inevitably feed through to higher consumer inflation, potentially limiting the scope for the Fed to reduce interest rates at a time when a slowing economy looks in need of a boost,” said Williamson.

A gauge of employment slipped to 50.8 from 51.5 in March. The survey’s flash manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.7 from 50.2 in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the manufacturing PMI declining to 49.1.

Its flash services PMI dropped to 51.4 from 54.4 last month. Economists had forecast the services PMI falling to 52.5. REUTERS