US consumers’ delinquency fears rise to highest level since 2020

US CONSUMERS are increasingly concerned about falling behind on their bills, with delinquency expectations rising to the highest level since the onset of the pandemic.

The average likelihood that consumers would miss a minimum debt payment in the next three months rose to 13.3 per cent, the highest level since April 2020, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released on Monday (Aug 12). That stress increased the most for people earning less than US$50,000 a year and for those with a high school degree or less.

Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago also deteriorated, the survey showed, and expectations of household spending growth fell to the lowest level in more than three years.

Workers’ views on the labour market were more mixed. While Americans are less fearful of losing their jobs and of higher unemployment over the next year, consumers said they expect it will be harder to find a job after becoming unemployed.

The findings line up with broader economic data that show the labour market is weakening and more consumers are falling behind on debt payments. Hiring slowed in July and the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 4.3 per cent, the highest level in nearly three years.

A separate New York Fed report on household debt and credit published last week showed that the share of auto loan balances and credit card debt becoming newly delinquent were the highest in at least a decade.

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Fed officials are putting more focus on employment now that inflation has cooled substantially and the labour market is softening. Policymakers have held their benchmark rate at a two-decade high for more than a year, but have signalled they’ll start to cut borrowing costs as soon as September if inflation continues to decline.

The Survey of Consumer Expectations released Monday showed that short-term and long-term inflation expectations remained stable, with the median one-year inflation outlook holding at 3 per cent and the five-year forecast unchanged at 2.8 per cent. Expectations for what inflation will be in three years, however, dropped by 0.6 percentage point to 2.3 per cent, the lowest since the survey began in 2013. BLOOMBERG