US inflation expectations rise -NY Fed survey

[NEW YORK] US inflation expectations edged higher last month, with one measure hitting its highest level in a year, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey published Monday that adds to signs of price pressures.

The survey of consumer expectations, which the Fed considers among other data as it continues to gradually raise interest rates, showed median one-year ahead inflation expectations rose to 2.83 per cent from 2.71 per cent in January, the highest reading since February 2017.

The three-year measure was 2.88 per cent in February, up from 2.79 the month before. Both measures have edged higher this year, making up ground after years in which the gauges, taken since mid-2013, have generally slipped.

The US central bank raised rates three times last year and is expected to hike again next week, in a nod to fiscal stimulus, hot employment, and overall data suggesting prices are rising after more than five years below a 2-per cent Fed target.

The New York Fed survey, in which a third party taps a rotating panel of about 1,200 household heads, found last month's rise was driven by higher-educated respondents. Their uncertainty around the inflation expectations were the lowest recorded.


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